Tuesday Bets: Why I’m Backing the Reds and Rangers
I’ve got my eye on two F5 bets for Tuesday night where each team is on the road with favorable advantages for their lineups to create some run production. Each of these squads ranks in the top 5 in wRC+ and wOBA facing left-handed pitching so I think it's likely that each team is able to jump out to an early lead in their respective matchups.
Let’s dive deeper into these matchups to understand why the model likes each of these road favorites to be leading after 5 innings of play.
Matchups I’m Targeting for the Day
- Reds at Tigers
- Rangers at Blue Jays
Reds @ Tigers (Williamson vs. Wentz)
The Reds are within 2 games of the final Wild Card spot in the NL and are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive with a series victory in Detroit. The fall-off they’ve experienced since their surge back in June & July has largely been attributed to injuries to key starting pitchers and position players, but they’ve recently found their stride after signing Harrison Bader and Hunter Renfroe from waivers. This has helped regain some of the offensive production lost due to injury, but now they must find a way to mash their way back into the playoff picture.
I think that journey continues here in Detroit.
Tigers Starting Pitcher
Joey Wentz: is a soft thrower who doesn’t miss bats and gives up lots of hard contact, especially to right-handed hitters. His offspeed pitches are in the 83rd percentile for run value, but that is the only bright spot on his resume. He struggles with falling behind in counts and is prone to giving up the long ball which is reflected in his 5.76 xERA // 5.18 xFIP. In order to find success in this matchup vs. the Reds he needs to use his offspeed pitches early in counts to get ahead and not leave himself vulnerable to obvious fastball situations.
Reds Lineup
The above projection for each batter factors in each of the following:
- Full Season Performance
- Split: Recent Rolling Window
- Split: Hitting vs. LHP
The Reds have mashed left-handed pitching all year and will have a juicy matchup tonight, especially after adding Renfroe and Bader to the lineup, each of whom is better than league average for right-handed hitters. The overall unit has posted the 8th-best wRC+ and 6th-best wOBA vs LHP this season, so look for this trend to continue vs. Joey Wentz.
Reds Starting Pitcher
Brandon Williamson: has an xERA sitting at a respectable 4.93 with an xFIP of 4.60. Despite his less-than-incredible numbers as a rookie starter, he’s been a steady addition to this staff as they’ve dealt with key injuries at the top of the rotation. Williamson does struggle more vs. right-handed hitters but will benefit from pitching at Comerica Park as a fly-ball pitcher.
Over his last 3 starts, he’s lowered his xFIP to 3.14 and has increased his innings per start to just shy of 6. I like what he’s done to keep opponents off balance with the usage of his slider and changeup, and do not expect him to meet regression based on his recent performance trend.
Betting Angle & Pick
As mentioned, I think the Reds are ripe to feast off of soft-throwing Joey Wentz which should help mount an early lead for serviceable starting pitcher Brandon Williamson. The Reds' batting splits vs. LHP is too big to ignore, especially vs. Wentz who has struggled to miss bats and limit hard contact.
My model agrees with this analysis as it is projecting the Reds -150 favorites in the first 5 innings, which is a 6.67% edge over the current line of -114.
I would back the Reds in this spot as far up as -130.
Rangers @ Blue Jays (Scherzer vs. Ryu)
Two teams vying for an AL Wild Card spot are squaring off in a crucial series here in Toronto. The Rangers are trying to right the ship after a tumultuous August while the Jays look to take the needed leap forward into the playoffs. The Rangers went out and acquired Max Scherzer at the trade deadline and he’s been stellar ever since as he’s posting a 3.63 xERA and 3.73 xFIP in that time span. Although Blue Jays starter Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid since returning from injury on August 1st, I like the Rangers heavy-hitting lineup vs LHP to jump out to an early lead that Mad Max is able to protect.
Let’s dive deeper:
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher
Hyun-Jin Ryu: again, has been a very solid starter for Toronto since his return last month as he’s posting a 2.65 ERA over that span. However, if you take a deeper look into his metrics you’ll see that the low ERA has been a bit lucky with his FIP over that same timeframe up at 4.23 and xFIP 3.74. Although you could argue that with regression he is still a formidable pitcher, I think he’s got a bad matchup in a hitter friendly park vs the Ranger lineup that mashes left handed pitching. Over the past 3 seasons Ryu has seen his velocity dip consistently, which has continued this season, and has become less proficient missing bats while giving up hard contact. The hard contact is where the regression monster is set to get him, and the Rangers are the type of slugging team that can get to him.
Rangers Lineup
The above projection for each batter factors in each of the following:
- Full Season Performance
- Split: Recent Rolling Window
- Split: Hitting vs. LHP
The Rangers have mashed left-handed pitching all year and I project they can continue that success tonight vs Ryu who is due for regression. The overall unit has posted the 2nd-best wRC+ and wOBA vs LHP this season and I see no reason why that production should be curbed here tonight.
Rangers Starting Pitcher
Max Scherzer: has been stellar all season long but has really picked up his production since joining the Rangers at the deadline as previously mentioned. He’s back to his old self after it seemed like regression was setting in for the better part of the 2021 and 2022 seasons. His K% is back up in the 82nd percentile and he’s reducing hard contact which has led to a near career-low xBA against him. As has always been the case, he’s susceptible to home runs as a fly ball pitcher which could get him into trouble in the hitter-friendly confines of Toronto, but he projects to outpace Ryu behind the output of the Ranger lineup.
Betting Angle & Pick
As mentioned, I think the Rangers will be able to exploit Ryu in this matchup while Scherzer is able to handle the Blue Jay lineup by limiting contact and generating plenty of strikeouts. The Rangers' batting splits vs. LHP is too big to ignore, which is a bad recipe for Ryu who has been identified as a candidate for regression.
My model agrees with this analysis as it is projecting the Rangers -145 favorites in the first 5 innings, which is a 4.05% edge over the current line of -125.
I would back the Rangers in this spot as far up as -135.