The Unwritten Rules

Padres vs Tigers: The Curious Case of Randy Vásquez

For those not familiar with his game, Randy Vasquez largely struggled to find his way as a consistent, productive starter during his first full year as an MLB starter in 2024 after coming to San Diego from the Yankees in the Juan Soto trade. The twenty-six-year-old, who was once a

Royals vs Tigers: Expect a Low Scoring Affair on Thursday

My model suggests the Tigers are slightly overvalued (-150 favorites at the time of writing) in this home divisional matchup with the Royals, which is a common edge spot, where books will shade lines towards the home favorite. Because teams within the division play each other 19 times per year,

Rays vs Red Sox: How to Bet this AL East Showdown

My model shows a sizeable edge on the Red Sox as Tanner Houck's early-season regression continues to be factored into the moving average used in his effectiveness calculation. Because of this, I'd like to use caution when the model suggests backing him until his body of

Friday Bets: Expected Value Around the Diamond

It's been an exciting opening week of baseball as new storylines begin to develop for the 2025 season. We've seen walk-offs, bat controversy, and surprise performances (for better or worse) from several unexpected teams across the league. From a betting perspective, the books assign inflated lines

Friday Bets: Picks for Opening Day Part 2

It's been an exciting opening week of baseball as new storylines begin to develop for the 2025 season. We've seen walk-offs, bat controversy, and surprise performances (for better or worse) from several unexpected teams across the league. From a betting perspective, the books assign inflated lines

Opening Day 2025: Early Season Trends and Bets

Spring Training camps have wrapped up, and the regular season is upon us. It's time for opening day 2025! Before we dive into the daily bets, I want to share some information regarding early-season trends that I'll be watching for the first month or two of

2025 Award Futures Bets & Predictions

At the time of writing, we are one week from Opening Day, so to handle the anticipation, let's preview the MLB award future props by covering the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year markets. These markets are quite vast and offer long odds for players outside

2025 Stat Leader Projections for Position Players & Pitchers

For this article, I'm covering my MLB stat leader predictions and season award picks. This will include MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races for season awards, while the stat categories encompass wins, strikeouts, and saves for pitchers, and home runs, runs scored, RBI, steals, and

2025 National League Preview

Win Totals & Future Odds Predictions for Every Team... Although it may still feel like winter for the majority of the country, there's plenty to look forward to as a baseball fan. Soon the familiar sounds of ballparks around the league will be upon us, giving a valid

2025 American League Preview

Win Totals & Future Odds Predictions for Every Team... Although it may still feel like winter for the majority of the country, there's plenty to look forward to as a baseball fan. Soon the familiar sounds of ballparks around the league will be upon us, giving a valid

Rays at Orioles: How to Bet This AL East Showdown

With 15 games left in the regular season, the Rays find themselves two games back of the division-leading Orioles. Since overtaking the division lead in mid-August the Orioles have not looked back, and despite very good play from the Rays, have maintained their moderate lead. If Tampa is going to

Tuesday Bets: Why I’m Backing the Reds and Rangers

I’ve got my eye on two F5 bets for Tuesday night where each team is on the road with favorable advantages for their lineups to create some run production. Each of these squads ranks in the top 5 in wRC+ and wOBA facing left-handed pitching so I think it&

MNB: Yankees at Red Sox

Monday Night Baseball While the national focus will be on the NFL’s premier broadcast of Monday Night Football for the 2023 season, quietly in the background, we’ve got a juicy slate of MLB games that are providing betting value. September is a forgotten time of year for the

Rays @ Marlins: Here’s Why I’m Backing the Fish

At the time of writing all three AL West competing clubs are tied atop the standings as they each make their push towards the playoffs. It appears that all three teams will make the playoffs, but winning the division will be extremely important as the champ will likely get a

Reds vs. Giants: Here’s Why Cincy is the Side to Back

Each of these squads enters this matchup "by the bay" with 4-6 records over their last 10 games. The Reds are on the tail end of a West Coast road trip where they’ve especially struggled, dropping 3 out of 4 games vs. the Diamondbacks and the series

MLB Betting Edges for 8-28-23

Tonight’s slate shows value on several teams who are fighting for playoff contention but have slim hopes of matching the Mariners monumental accomplishment.

MLB Betting Edges for 8-25-23

As is typical for many Friday nights throughout the season my model is showing value on several underdogs as the market looks to take advantage of public bettors backing the heavy favorites, especially those playing at home.

MLB Betting Edges for 8-24-23

With the impending football season at our doorstep, MLB is already beginning to take a back seat. However, there are several teams on today's slate who are fighting to stay in their division races and not succumb to their respective backseat narratives.

MLB Betting Edges for 6-11

Using math to eliminate the guesswork of betting on baseball.

MLB Betting Edges for 6-08

Using math to eliminate the guesswork of betting on baseball.

MLB Edges for 5-21

using math to eliminate the guesswork of betting on MLB.

MLB Edges for 5-9-21

Using math to eliminate the guesswork of betting on MLB.

Daily MLB Edges for 5-6-21

Daily Advice for betting on MLB

Daily MLB Edges for 5-4-21

Daily advice for betting on MLB

Daily MLB Edges for 4-27

Daily advice for betting on MLB