The Unwritten Rules

Daily MLB Betting Advice

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Baseball is a complex sport with several levels of fandom attached to it. Typically those who have a deeper understanding of the game appreciate its beauty much more than your average fan, which makes those who have the deeper insights that much more connected to the nuances on the field rather than simply the aesthetic typically sought by the casual fans. Pretty straightforward. Those who played the game have a grasp on the rules, strategies, and (at least) the simple analytics used to measure performance. Why would anyone who might find the game a bit slow or boring immerse themselves in the nuances of the game -- where’s the incentive? It’s not fast paced like basketball and it’s not as exciting as football. However, I personally believe there's an interesting connection between interest in baseball and gambling. Baseball by far carries the most advanced analytical measurement attached to it that can be used to inform your betting decisions (when used correctly). There’s also no lack of opportunity as each team plays 162 games a year with full slates of games nearly daily. Not to mention, the MLB betting market is much softer than most other major American sports due to its lack of betting interest by the public and difficulty in keeping up with the daily grind. There is a treasure trove of data to help raise excitement about the game through betting with a mountain of opportunities to bet. Now let’s use some simple math to find expected value and hammer the books that might be offering soft lines.

Do know that betting on baseball can be a difficult and humbling endeavor, given the high level of variance that plays out during the 162 game grind of the season -- however it does seem that math can help eliminate much of the guesswork, and also neutralize bias when it comes to making daily wagers; especially to avoid going on tilt during a losing streak. A clear advantage of baseball betting is that there’s no lack of wagering opportunities due to the length of the season. However it’s paramount that a bettor employ the same mindset seen by a great hitter; which is maintaining a short term memory and remaining persistent in approach through hot and cold streaks.

Disclaimer

What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy

You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). .

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Today is a great day for Baseball…

Opening Day! It’s finally here. So much anticipation, high expectations, and excitement entering into this season -- especially from a betting perspective. A fresh 162 games are ahead of us!

Matchups I’m Targeting for April Fools Day

• Twins @ Brewers
• Cardinals @ Reds
• Rays @ Marlins
• White Sox @ Angels
• Astros @ Athletics
• Giants @ Mariners
  

Twins @ Brewers (Maeda vs Woodruff)

These two neighboring state squads head into an opening day matchup, each with a ton of expectations for the 2021 season. One thing that glaringly sticks out in this afternoon matchup is the location - Miller Park. I know the name has changed but it will forever be Miller Park to me as it commemorates ones of America’s greatest beer cities. The location of the game is significant here at the beginning of 2021 because it’s a National League stadium which means pitchers are hitting, and the legend himself Nelson Cruz is sitting. Cruz has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past two seasons posting a .416 wOBA which trails only Mike Trout (.428) over that span. Since Cruz is sitting instead of hitting, the Twins are losing nearly a quarter run off their projected total and up to 5% off their projected moneyline.

Aside from Cruz, the pitching matchup features two righties who dominated in 2020, and are poised to continue their success in 2021. Both Maeda and Woodruff ranked in the top 10 in xFIP, and top 5 in xERA for starting pitchers in 2020. Each pitcher also poses a tough matchup for the opposing batting lineups, as each are expected to put up average wOBA vs righties in this upcoming campaign.

Not for nothing, but each of these squads has improved on the defensive front over this offseason which may also prove to save runs for each respective team. Most notably the Brewers shored up the second base position with gold glover Kolten Wong, while adding Jackie Bradley Jr. in center, and welcoming back Lorenzo Cain who may not be entirely back to form right away, but has consistently proven to be an above average defender. On the Twins side, adding Andrelton Simmons to short stop will surely improve an already steady defensive front that features Byron Buxton roaming center field.

My model gives an edge to the Brewers at home 55% of the time, which is only a 4.61% expected value -- shy of the 6% I’d be looking for to take a side. Instead I’m eyeing the full game total of 8, and siding with the under. My model projects this score at 6.18 runs and the intangible factors matchup evenly.

I would bet under 8 to as high as -110 which would be a 10.28% edge

Cardinals @ Reds (Flaherty vs Castillo)

It seems as though public perception has flip flopped from a year ago on these two NL Central teams. Coming into the 2020 campaign, the Reds had loaded up on free agent talent and were seemingly built to thrive under the NL DH rule set in place for the shortened season. Turns out the hype didn’t live up to the expectations as the Reds underperformed from an offensive perspective according to wOBA and wRC+. Alongside with them as partners in underwhelming crime were the Cardinals, who’s only positive from a hitting perspective was a COVID test (missing several weeks right after the season started). Flash forward to this season and the Reds saw Trevor Bauer leave in free agency while the Cardinals traded for possibly the best third baseman in baseball.

This opening day matchup of course features each teams ace -- each of which are among the best young pitchers in baseball at the current time. Flaherty features one of the best sliders in baseball as he allowed only a .250 xwOBA and 23% hard hit % against last season. While Castillo posted a .260 xwOBA against overall while boasting possibly the best change-up in the game that he throws 30% of the time which posted a .228 xwOBA against last season. This is surely a must watch pitching matchup that should each overwhelm the other offense.

When evaluating the side in this game, you’ll want to direct your attention to the bullpen and defenses. The Cards still possess one of the best defenses in baseball despite losing Kolten Wong to free agency, while the Reds continue to lack in this department. Seemingly no upgrades were made by Cincinnati to improve an already lacking defense. Comparing bullpens -- the Reds have had a knack for developing their bullpen pitchers in recent years which has been able to take players who do one thing well and help them accentuate it. Still though, they are lacking depth to start this season which could prove costly in the long run. However depth may not play a major role in this opening day matchup, so expect only the top talent to see innings in this one.

I have the Cardinals projected as -125 favorites in this one so I’ll gladly take them at +100, and play them all the way to -115.

I also like the under for the 1st 5 innings, as I believe each starting pitcher has a clear edge over the offenses. I would bet under 4 F5 to -125.

Rays @ Marlins (Glasnow vs Alcantara)

Although public perception has shifted on the Rays, they may remain one of the best teams in baseball during the 2021 campaign. They seemingly find new ways to morph the game to find and edge, and I for one respect the hell out of that. This season they’ll surely be using many pitching combinations to get outs after the loss of Blake Snell and Charlie Morton, but they will certainly have no lack in depth as they employ their next man up strategy using their top 5 farm system.

Depth may not be an issue in this matchup against the Marlins with Glasnow on the mound to take on a hodgepodge offensive lineup that surprised in 2020 by making the playoffs. Glasnow should maintain an edge over this lineup -- but even if he doesn’t the Ray have “a stable of guys who throw 98” to back him up, and surely they will. On the Marlins side, Sandy Alcantara quietly put up numbers last year that rival his counterpart. Alcantara doesn’t rack up the K numbers like Glasnow, but does give up fewer hard hit balls, which should be enough to keep the Rays at “Bay."

I’ll gladly take a full game under 7.5 runs in a matchup that features two aces and fully loaded bullpens. I make this total 6.04 which provides a 9.47% edge.

White Sox @ Angels (Giolito vs Bundy)

To start the 2021 campaign it’s possible that the Chicago White Sox are the most overrated team in all of baseball. How can you not root for this young squad managed by the 76 year old Tony LaRussa, as they’re poised to fully emerge as a perennial contender. It’s for this reason that I’ll keep this analysis brief…

The Angels have consistently been overrated over the past decade, fueled in large part by Mike Trout’s stardom. Consistently the Angels spend in free agency on big name position players while ignoring their holes on the pitching front, and consistently they perform below expectations.

I believe this opening day line is nothing but an overreaction to blown out Angels hype. I project the White Sox to win this matchup 59% of the time so I’ll gladly bet them at -115 up to -120 with Giolito toeing the hill

I also like Giolito to dominate in the 1st 5 innings -- play White Sox -120 F5 to -125.

Astros @ Athletics (Greinke vs Bassit)

Although one name stands out more than the other in this pitching matchup, on paper it’s basically a wash. A similar statement could be made about the rosters as a whole, as these two AL West squads look to clash for the first of many in this opening day matchup.

For Oakland, the additions of Moreland and Andrus are merely fillers for the bats of Robbie Grossman (Tigers) and Marcus Semien (Blue Jays), though it will clearly be a step back. Similarly, the Astros saw George Springer leave in free agency which will result in a slight overall setback for the Houston offense this season.

With the starting pitching and lineup matchups being even, I’m looking to the Oakland bullpen to provide an edge in this one for the Athletics at home in the East Bay on Opening day.

I like the A’s at -105 and would play them to -115.

Giants @ Mariners (Gausman vs Gonzales)

Far after the east coast has gone to bed on opening day the Mariners will be hosting the Giants in Seattle. As sleepy as this matchup may seem to most… it should prove to be just that, and projects low scoring in a major way

While both squads are squarely in a rebuilding mode, there isn’t a ton of optimism heading into this season other than the prospects the Mariners provide. Each lineup will likely be a work in progress throughout the season, especially for the Mariners as they await the arrival of Jarred Kelenic (their top prospect).

In this matchup expect each starting pitcher to be effective as they each build on a successful 2020 campaigns, as each boasted a sub .290 xwOBA against. While each starting pitcher finds their gove, it may take the offenses some time to catch up -- resulting in a low total as the projection suggests.

I would take under 8.5 at -115 or u8 at -105 in this sleepy PNW matchup.

Daily Projection Model Sheet

If you’d like to compare your book’s lines to my model’s projections, simply download the sheet below and insert your given lines/totals into the yellow shaded cells to find your edges!

Essentially any time your “edge” result column returns a green cell, you’re looking at expected value. I don’t recommend playing every single edge, but sometimes it’s fun to find which games might be valuable to play run lines or even parlays. This will simply help you formulate those decisions.

VIEW SHEET (please make a copy before using)