Royals vs Tigers: Expect a Low Scoring Affair on Thursday

My model suggests the Tigers are slightly overvalued (-150 favorites at the time of writing) in this home divisional matchup with the Royals, which is a common edge spot, where books will shade lines towards the home favorite.

Because teams within the division play each other 19 times per year, it breeds familiarity and levels the playing field, inevitably benefiting the dog. Although this is the first meeting between these clubs in 2025, they largely bring back the same units from a year ago, and are expected to be pitted against each other much of the season in the division race.

Per Action Network's Bet Labs:

Since 2005, dogs in divisional games have produced +83.72 units, while dogs outside the division have lost an astounding -574.62 units. Divisional dogs perform even better if we layer in two more filters. First, road teams (the public overvalues home-field advantage, creating inflated value on visitors). Second, a high total (8.5 or more). With more runs expected to be scored, it leads to more variance, aiding the underdog.

This system has produced an incredible +177.73 units since 2005. If we go one step further and layer in contrarian value (teams less than 30% in heavily bet games) as well as reverse line movement (sharp action), the win rate increases from 43.7% to 45.9%, and the ROI (return on investment) increases from 3.1% to 10.8%.

Kansas City Royals

Michael Lorenzen has made improvements to his overall effectiveness here in 2025, largely due to increased ground ball rate (41.8 to 50%) and decreased BB/9 rate ( 4.14 to 2.12) year over year. His Stuff+ ratings are largely similar to his career marks, but there's a noticeable increase in both his Location+ (109 up from 96) and Pitching+ (102 up from 89), which is a clear indication he's locating his pitches well and utilizing effective sequencing of his 5 pitch arsenal.

These marks illustrate the cause of his increased effectiveness as a starter this season. Throughout his stint as a starter over the past 3 seasons, Lorenzen has consistently been prone to hard contact and does not create much swing and miss, both as a result of his league average grades in Stuff+ (i.e, he doesn't fool hitters with movement, spin, or velocity). Therefore, he needs to reach these marks in location and pitch sequencing to be most effective, and since he's showing a big year-to-year improvement here, I'll be looking to back him moving forward, including here as part of a team total bet.

Detroit Tigers

Reese Olsen is still developing as a starting pitcher at the MLB level at age 25. At his best, he's able to create ground balls and weak contact at a high rate using his sinker/slider combo along with an effective changeup. So far in '25, he's pitching on par with his career rates despite carrying a high 6.00 ERA, since his FIP at 3.93 and xERA at 4.59 suggest he's been much more effective.

Based on his underlying metrics, I see no reason why he can't be effective in creating enough weak ground ball contact here to limit run scoring.

Analysis & Pick

Both starting pitchers profile similarly, where each is adept at creating ground balls at a high rate, which could make for a potential pitching duel in what will be a windy and cold environment at Comerica Park Thursday evening. Despite both playing games in different cities on Wednesday, neither traveled far, and neither overused their bullpen, so expect nearly full-strength staffs for this important division matchup. Given all of the factors listed, especially those regarding the starting pitchers who will likely pitch for more than half of this game, I believe it's wise to invest in an under at the current listed price, and the model agrees.

Without wind, the model makes this total 7.48; With wind, down to 6.99!

Pick: Under 8 -120 (down to 7.5 -105)