Reds vs. Giants: Here’s Why Cincy is the Side to Back
Each of these squads enters this matchup "by the bay" with 4-6 records over their last 10 games. The Reds are on the tail end of a West Coast road trip where they’ve especially struggled, dropping 3 out of 4 games vs. the Diamondbacks and the series opener last night vs. the Giants. It's no secret that the now third-place Reds’ hopes of making the postseason by way of the NL Central division crown are starting to fade. What’s more, these struggles are coming at a time when they expected to hit the ground running after seeing their young ace pitcher Hunter Greene return from injury. But it seems as though the Reds' youth and injuries at position player are now starting to catch up with them at a most critical time of the year.
The Giants have had a stretch of tough opponents throughout August, matching up with the Rangers, Rays, Phillies, and Braves in their last 4 series. This has led to the reversal of their second-place division standing and are now looking up at the Diamondbacks from third. Their versatile cast of lesser-known characters has been consistent in winning the games they should this year, but after meeting up with the cream of the crop, are they starting to regress to their mean?
Let’s dive into the matchup to see where the value lies tonight:
Cincinnati Reds
Cincy’s youthful bats burst onto the scene earlier this season but have since come back down to earth a bit after falling from their seat atop the NL Central. The comedown has been due in large part to key injuries suffered by the likes of Jonathan India, Matt McClain, Jake Fraley, and Joey Votto. This has put their depth to the test and results have not been ideal after bringing in new faces like Nick Martini, but are looking to get back on track in this matchup.
The Reds send lefty Brandon Williamson to the mound whose xERA is sitting at a respectable 4.93 with an xFIP of 4.60. Despite his less-than-incredible numbers as a rookie starter, he’s been a steady addition to this staff as they’ve dealt with key injuries at the top of the rotation. Williamson does struggle more vs. right-handed hitters but will benefit from pitching at Oracle Park as a fly-ball pitcher.
Over his last 3 starts, he’s lowered his xFIP to 3.14 and has increased his innings per start to just shy of 6. I like what he’s done to keep opponents off balance with the usage of his slider and changeup, and do not expect him to meet regression based on his recent performance trend.
The bats as previously mentioned have cooled off in August after a blistering June & July, but there's still some juice left. The recent addition of Nick Martini has resulted in a positive impact in the middle of the order which provides some protection to Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz. However, they will still be relying on youth at the bottom of the order to overcome their brutal output of 76 wRC+ that they’ve posted over the past 2 weeks.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants will have veteran righty Alex Cobb who also has a 4.93 xERA which is over a run higher than his actual ERA on the season. Cobb has looked good on the surface with his increased velocity in his age-35 season, but the underlying metrics have suggested regression was looming for quite some time now. That regression certainly struck over his 5 starts in the month of August, where over that span he is pitching to a 5.64 ERA while his batting average against is up 50% over his season mark of .282.
In those August starts Cobb has seen an increase in barrels and hard-hit contact against him while simultaneously watching the ground ball rate he so thrives on decrease. That harder contact coupled with fewer swings and misses spells a likelihood that the effectiveness of his splitter has simply not been present. Unless he can figure out some of these issues, I don’t see a reason why his August struggles won’t continue in this matchup vs. the Reds.
Facing left-handed pitchers has been the Giants' offense lesser split, posting a wRC+ rank of 24th in the league. In general, the offense has struggled over their last stretch of August games pacing at a 94 wRC+. Strikeouts are what plague this lineup regardless of the side the pitcher is throwing from, which is something worth watching in this one especially once the bullpen enters into the mix.
Betting Analysis & Pick
In a time when it has been difficult to find a reason to back the abysmal Reds' bats and disappointing pitching performances, it's a valuable spot to fade Alex Cobb.
If there were a situation for these Reds hitters to get back on track it's here vs. Cobb who throws a lot of strikes but fails to produce weak contact. This premise should lead to some increased opportunities for hits on balls in play for a lineup that can still hit the ball hard.
The kicker to this pick is the sturdy arm of Brandon Williamson who I think will continue to find success for the reasons mentioned above.
My model projects the Reds at closer to +125 underdogs in this matchup which is a 4.77% expected edge over the current line of +140.
I recommend backing the Reds in both the full game at +140 and F5 at +130, splitting a half unit on each.