Rays vs Red Sox: How to Bet this AL East Showdown
My model shows a sizeable edge on the Red Sox as Tanner Houck's early-season regression continues to be factored into the moving average used in his effectiveness calculation. Because of this, I'd like to use caution when the model suggests backing him until his body of work reaches statistical significance. In his last outing, Houck began to show improvement as he allowed only 1 earned run over 6.2 innings pitched, giving up 5 hits and striking out 2 batters. Though this is certainly a step in the right direction, I still have concerns going forward, as his ability to limit hard contact and induce groundballs with his sinker remains an issue. This is an especially difficult recipe to find success in a high-scoring environment versus a Rays team that is swinging hot bats after a weekend series win against the Braves.
Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz has outperformed his preseason projections thus far and books have adjusted his betting line accordingly heading into this matchup as he's favored. His fastball velocity looks to be up a full mile per hour, and he's using the curveball at the highest rate of his short career (34.1% up from 24%). This has increased his overall effectiveness as his run value on breaking pitches sits in the 88th percentile according to Baseball Savant. He'll be looking to maintain this level of early-season success into a larger trend in this home matchup against a division opponent.
One area of focus for Baz must be his hard hit% (38.1% of all contact has been graded as "hard hit"), which is in the 50th percentile per Baseball Savant. This issue can mainly be attributed to his fastball, which, although it is being thrown harder, is not fooling hitters to an effective degree. This, of course, is especially important when pitching at home in Tampa, where the wind often blows out in an already-friendly run environment.
For Monday's game, the wind is projected to be blowing out to left center at a minimum of 10mph.
Although I liked the improvement Houck made in his last outing, and respect the early success we've seen from Baz, I believe this total is slightly lower than it should be for Steinbrenner Field. It's also worth noting that each bullpen saw its fair share of usage over the weekend and will be taxed for this matchup. Even if we see both starters excel, I believe these offenses have enough firepower in a high run environment to push the total over once each team turns over to the bullpens, if not before.