Rays @ Marlins: Here’s Why I’m Backing the Fish
At the time of writing all three AL West competing clubs are tied atop the standings as they each make their push towards the playoffs. It appears that all three teams will make the playoffs, but winning the division will be extremely important as the champ will likely get a playoff bye as the second-place AL finisher, while the remaining two fall into the 5th and 6th spots below the Rays who currently lead the Wild Card race.
Tampa is looking to gain ground on the first-place Orioles who stormed ahead of them in the AL East race in August after starting the season at a historic pace. They enter tonight's matchup with the Marlins in Miami with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games and are within 2.5 games of the division-leading Orioles.
Their opponent has struggled since being buyers at the deadline. After dropping the series-opening game last night the Marlins have a 3-7 record in their last 10 and have fallen back to .500 on the season with a record of 60-60. Luckily for the fish, they are only 3 games back of the final Wild Card spot and very much alive in that race. A win tonight vs the supremely talented Rays would certainly be a step in the right direction.
Let’s dive into the matchup to see why I’m seeing value in backing Miami:
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays will use former Philly bullpen arm Zach Eflin as their starter tonight. He’s been extremely impressive since taking on his new starting role with Tampa this season, pitching to the tune of a 3.55 ERA with a 2.93 xERA. He’s decreased the usage of a 4-seam fastball and increased the utilization of a cutter to pair with his primary pitch, the sinker. That seems to have created more deception for opposing hitters who are really struggling to make consistent contact. The sinker and curveball reign supreme as his two top pitches and he’s done a great job of emphasizing each of them this season.
An underrated element of Eflin’s success is the friendly confines of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. His home and road splits are showing a glaring disproportion in his success at Tropicana Field vs. his road starts as he possesses a 2.34 ERA at home and a 4.65 ERA on the road. The longer into the season this trend continues, the more statistically significant these numbers are getting, and it’s becoming clear that he enjoys an edge pitching at home. Perhaps the rumors of poor hitter vision at the Trop hold merit and Eflin’s newfound deception stems from those elements.
The bats suffered the loss of Wander Franco in the middle of the order a few weeks back but have seen very little fall off in production. In their last 30 games the Rays are sporting a 130 wRC+ which is up on their season result of 119 wRC+. The Rays do not have a sizeable difference in production output when facing lefties over righties, so no edge to speak of in that department. It’s a next man up mentally for this squad that has welcomed some minor league additions in Franco’s absence - all who have picked up the slack.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins will send young lefty Jesus Luzardo to the hill who possesses a 4.16 xERA with a 3.71 xFIP on the season. Luzardo has looked good in his return this year after being injured for most of 2022 - his K/9 is up over 10 but the walk rate is well above league average at 7.02%. When he struggles it’s usually due to falling behind in the count where opponents are more likely to make hard or walk. He’ll be helped by a Rays lineup that ranks 24th in chase rate but will need to stay ahead in counts as they rank as a top 5 offense in hard contact vs. pitches in the strike zone.
The Marlins have been a bottom-tier offense this season ranking 25th in wRC+ overall, and 21st vs. right-handed pitching. There hasn’t been a noticeable dropoff in production in their recent stretch of losing baseball. Their team characteristics have consistently been a poor hitting club with a strong pitching front - so relying on Luzardo to pace them to success in this matchup will not be something new. This lineup prides itself on making consistent contact and not striking out but struggles to find any type of slug away from the bat of Jorge Soler who paces the club.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Rays as a team do not walk very much and rank 24th in chase rate as a unit, which is a disadvantage in tonight's matchup against Luzardo who is a high strikeout pitcher that struggles with control when he gets in trouble.
I think Luzardo can find success in this matchup by limiting contact and keeping the ball on the ground, while the offense goes back to work against Eflin who they just saw well in Tampa when they put up 5 runs on 7 hits.
With Eflin pitching on the road, my model projects the Marlins as slight favorites in this matchup at -108 which is a 4.14% expected edge over the current line of +110.
I recommend backing the Reds in both the full game at +140 and F5 at +130, splitting a half unit on each.