Rays at Orioles: How to Bet This AL East Showdown
With 15 games left in the regular season, the Rays find themselves two games back of the division-leading Orioles. Since overtaking the division lead in mid-August the Orioles have not looked back, and despite very good play from the Rays, have maintained their moderate lead. If Tampa is going to surpass Baltimore before October 2nd this stretch of ball could be the time, as the Orioles play three this week vs. Tampa then go on the road for 3-game series’ against the Astros and Guardians. Both of these teams are deserving of the AL crown given their respective performances on the field this season, but only one team can wear it, and game 1 of this series tonight will certainly play a crucial role in determining a winner.
Let’s dive into this matchup to find where the value is:
Orioles Starting Pitcher
Kyle Bradish: has steadily improved over the course of the season, lowering his ERA by nearly a run per month to reach his solid mark of 3.03 ERA // 3.89 xERA at the current time. His steady incline of success has come in large part due to his increased usage of breaking pitches which rank in the 100th percentile for run value. Using his sinker/slider combo mixed with his curveball he’s able to keep hitters off balance and generate an above-average rate of strikeouts or weak ground ball contact. This is especially a recipe for success when pitching at Camden Yards where the ball flies out to right field, so keeping the ball on the ground or creating weak contact is paramount. Although I don’t see any obvious signs for Bradish to slow down in this Start vs. the Rays, it’s worth noting that he will need to work ahead in counts to avoid obvious fastball situations that the slugging Rays feast on. Tampa is one of the more productive offensive teams in baseball but they are susceptible to the strikeout and will chase pitches as a team, so early count breaking balls in the strike zone are the recipe for success.
Orioles Bullpen
Health Score: 90%
Only three members of this pen worked on Wednesday and none of them were key arms used in the back end of games.
My model projects this pen at near full health and therefore is not expected to give up more runs per inning pitched than their average.
Rays Lineup
The above projection for each batter factors in each of the following:
- Full Season Performance
- Split: Recent Rolling Window
- Split: Hitting vs. RHP
The Rays' offensive production numbers speak for themselves at this point in the season, they rank 4th in OPS+ and 3rd in wRC+. Simply put they are a top 5 lineup in baseball in the most crucial run-scoring aspects and are extremely dynamic as they will configure a unique lineup designed to exploit the weaknesses of the opposing pitcher nightly. Against Bradish, they need to jump on his breaking pitches early in counts and do damage with them. This season the Rays have posted a .357 wOBA mark against sliders and .349 wOBA vs. curveballs which is well above the league average of .300 by a wide margin, so I like this matchup for the lineup despite Bradish’s recent success.
Rays Starting Pitcher
Aaron Civale: Like his counterpart, Civale is proficient in creating weak ground ball contact, but unlike Bradish, he does not strike batters out at a high rate. Relying primarily on his cutter-curveball combo he keeps batters off balance by getting them to chase outside the zone resulting in weak contact. Again, this formula is a recipe for success pitching at Camden Yards where the big left-handed hitting bats for the Orioles like to pepper the pull side gap.
Civale is coming off a rough start against Seattle where he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings pitched, but I like him to bounce back to his season average form where he’s posting a solid 3.62 xERA // 4.16 xFIP. It's a tough spot in a crucial matchup to be pitching on the road, but Civale’s ability to create soft contact should be enough to keep his team in the game long enough for his offense to break through.
Orioles Bullpen
Health Score: 90%
Five members of this pen worked on Wednesday and threw 63 pitches, but the depth of this pen will allow it to reach near full health for Thursday’s matchup in Baltimore.
My model projects this pen at near full health and therefore is not expected to give up more runs per inning pitched than their average.
Orioles Lineup
The above projection for each batter factors in each of the following:
- Full Season Performance
- Split: Recent Rolling Window
- Split: Hitting vs. RHP
Baltimore also ranks in the top 10 for wRC+ and OPS+ but has oddly not been as productive in their home stadium this season. They rank 15th in wRC+ and 16th in wOBA at Camden Yards, which very likely could be attributed to their new dimensions in left field while having the 5th highest fly ball rate in the league. While Civale doesn’t generate a ton of fly balls, he does generate weak contact which could be an issue for this Oriole lineup that is middle of the pack in hard-hit rate.
Betting Angle & Pick
These teams are neck and neck in the division and that sentiment is reflected very clearly in this matchup as each team projects the same offensive production, has very similar starting pitchers dueling on the hill, and neither has a clear bullpen edge.
In this spot, I believe Civale will be able to induce enough weak ground ball out to keep Baltimore off the board while the Rays lineup aggressively targets Bradish’s breaking pitches and exploits his fastball for runs.
My model projects the Orioles will win this game 53% of the time which is 3.55% lower than the current betting line suggests at -130. If all things are considered equal outside of home-field advantage, I will gladly take the value in backing the Rays at +125 or better in this spot.
Back the Rays at +125 and take them down to +115.