MNB: Yankees at Red Sox
Monday Night Baseball
While the national focus will be on the NFL’s premier broadcast of Monday Night Football for the 2023 season, quietly in the background, we’ve got a juicy slate of MLB games that are providing betting value. September is a forgotten time of year for the casual MLB fan which is unfortunate because it’s arguably when some of the best baseball gets played all season as those teams on the fringe of contention jockey for the final playoff spots. Yes, there are a bevy of teams who have thrown in the towel on the season, and yes many of those teams face each other this time of year. But for the majority of teams in this playoff expansion era, there are plenty of ways to find motivation, whether it's playing for a playoff spot, playing spoiler when you’re out of contention, or ushering in youth from the minor leagues.
As irrelevant as a game may be, one thing for certain is that sports books will be lining the game no matter what. Motivation aside, there is still plenty of value to be found in using statistical analysis for games at this point in the season. What’s important is to keep the same methodology that's been tried and true throughout the season and let math help determine the betting edge, while keeping variables like team motivation in the background.
Let’s dive into one matchup that is especially intriguing for this evening’s slate:
Yankees @ Red Sox (Schmidt vs. Crawford)
Yes, we’re still targeting this tired rivalry this late in the season while both are out of the playoff race. The Yankees welcomed young slugger Jasson Dominguez to the big leagues and has been the sole bright spot over their recent stretch. Sadly the bright hope he instilled in the Yankee faithful will have to be postponed until next season after he has elected to undergo season-ending elbow surgery.
As much of a disappointment as this loss is for those in Yankee land, one thing that has not been a disappointment in this rocky 2023 season is the breakout of starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt.
Yankees Starting Pitcher
Clarke Schmidt: is a crafty thrower who is adept at creating weak ground ball contact and not walking batters. He primarily mixes his cutter and sinker with a splitter and off-speed curveball. None of his pitches are above league average in run value, but he’s good at getting ahead in counts and forcing batters to chase. Keeping the ball on the ground is paramount vs. a slugging Red Sox lineup in an extremely hitter-friendly park.
Yankees Bullpen
Health Score: 50%
After a taxing day on Sunday, several arms will likely be out of commission or working on short rest for Monday’s matchup.
My model projects this pen will give up ¼ more runs per inning pitched than their average when fully healthy.
Red Sox Lineup
The above projection for each batter factors in each of the following:
- Full Season Performance
- Split: Recent Rolling Window
- Split: Hitting vs. RHP
Boston run production at home has been staggering this season. So far they are posting a .364 wOBA and 116 wRC+ at Fenway Park which ranks 3rd and 6th respectively.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher
Kutter Crawford: has been spectacular in his inaugural season but has recently fallen off his mark. His best pitch is the fastball which he needs to locate well for success which is something he’s struggled with since mid-August where his xFIP has risen to 5.59 from his season average of 4.18. Crawford is in the 82nd percentile in chase rate largely due to his cutter and slider break. When he’s not locating his fastball and getting ahead in counts, he’s susceptible to the long ball which is not a good recipe for pitching at Fenway.
Red Sox Bullpen
Health Score: 80%
Only three relievers were used in Sunday's game which leaves this pen at nearly full health for Monday.
My model projects this pen will give up only 5% more runs per inning pitched than their average when fully healthy.
Yankees Lineup
The above projection for each batter factors in each of the following:
- Full Season Performance
- Split: Recent Rolling Window
- Split: Hitting vs. RHP
Yankee run production will see a dip without Dominguez but is projected to be within a quarter run of the booming Red Sox.
Betting Angle & Pick
It’s not often I will recommend a double result in a baseball game, but this is going to be one of the rare times.
Based on all the above factors my model projects the Yankees have a 50.62% chance of leading after 5 innings which is a 3% higher than the market betting line of +110.
I think Clarke Schmidt will be able to keep the Red Sox lineup in check by pounding the strike zone and creating ground ball contact while the Yankee lineup is able to utilize the long ball vs Kutter Crawford.
However, I don’t project the Yankee bullpen to be able to hold the Sox bats down after Schmidt leaves and would therefore recommend taking the Red Sox full game line at -125 or better.