MLB Edges for 5-9-21

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer

What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy

You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Sunday May 9th, 2021

It’s Mother’s Day so teams across the league will be sporting the pink apparel in support of our women. There are several intriguing series ending matchups to tune into this Sunday as another good weekend of baseball comes to a close. Let’s check out what matchups have betting value on pink Sunday.

Matchups I’m Targeting

• Nationals @ Yankees
• Brewers @ Marlins
• Pirates @ Cubs
• White Sox @ Royals
• Rays @ Athletics
• Phillies @ Braves

Nationals @ Yankees (Ross vs German)

This early afternoon matchup in the Bronx features two starting pitchers who have each struggled to find success so far in 2021. Domingo German for the Yanks sports a .346 xwOBA against with a .296 BABIP which suggests the success opponents have had against him is accurate. Joe Ross for the Nats had a couple successful starts before the advanced stats caught up with him -- he’s also sporting a high xwOBA of .372 and has a 13% barrel rate which suggests he’s missing poorly in the zone frequently. With each of the offenses fully capable of scoring runs, I’m looking to fade each of these starting pitchers today.

My model projects this total at 10.25 runs which is almost a full run higher than the current line of 9.5.

I’m on the over 9.5 runs at -105 and would take it down to -120.

Brewers @ Marlins (Anderson vs Alcantara)

My model projects the Marlins to win this game at home vs lefty Brett Anderson 67% of the time which is 8.7% expected value over the current line of -140. After dropping the second game in the three game set on Saturday, I expect the fish to bounce back in game three against a reeling Brewers squad.

The Brewers offense has really struggled in the last week without a few key guys who have gone down to injury -- mainly Christian Yelich. Without him, and the way their bats have been going, it was already a question of how they’d be able to score runs on Sunday. But having to face off against Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara may just add insult to injury here for the Brewers.

Alcantara has been dominant in 2021 with a 3.19 ERA/2.46 xERA and a .258 xwOBA against. He’s primarily a sinkerballer who generates 50% of his contact into ground balls, and rarely gives up the home run ball (.74 per 9 innings). He should be able to continue his success against a feeble Brewers lineup, and I expect him to be pitching from ahead as his offense should be able to generate runs early vs Brett Anderson.

The Marlins have a .335 wOBA and 113 wRC vs lefties so they should be in a good position to do some damage at home. Anderson has been serviceable so far in 2021 but does have some underlying stats that suggest he’s due for regression. His 4.15 ERA and .329 wOBA against looks okay on the surface, but dig deeper and his xERA is 6.86 and xwOBA is .410 so it’s likely this pace he’s on is not sustainable.

I like the Marlins -160 F5 and -140 Full Game.

Pirates @ Cubs (Anderson vs Hendricks)

Betting lines for run totals at Wrigley Field historically don’t get released until hours before the game starts… and for good reason… the notorious north side Chicago winds. On any given day the strong winds can influence the number of runs scored drastically in one direction or another. Sunday is a case where the wind is blowing in steadily at 14mph and the betting total has plummeted to over/under 6 runs. You typically don’t see a 6 run total for games not featuring the most premier starters in baseball, so let’s dive in and see if this is a spot to take a contrarian over.

My model doesn’t account for the wind as much as I’d like. This is something I’d like to start accounting more for -- but in the grand scheme of things there really aren’t that many situations where the wind plays a major factor. Wind aside, my model projects the total in this game at 7.61. Combine the projection with the Cubs offense starting to piece things together by welcoming Joc Pederson back to the lineup along with starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks’ struggles to start the year, this isn’t an under I’m willing to back.

I think the books setting the total as low as 6 is a major overreaction to the wind forecast at Wrigley. With these two teams heading into the 3rd game of the series having used several key bullpen arms (that are not really that strong to begin with anyways), I like going against public perception and taking the over. It’s just too low to trust these starters to keep under.

Over 6 -115 up to -125.

White Sox @ Royals (Giolito vs Minor)

My model projects the total for this game at 8.25 which is nearly a run higher than the current total. Looking at the pitchup matchup in this game, it’s likely the books are shading the line lower as the public sees two top name pitching talents taking the hill. I’ll be fading that perception and expecting runs in this series final in Kansas City.

Cy Young hopeful Lucas Giolito comes into this matchup against Kansas City with a 5.68 ERA which is much higher than his preseason projection of 3.71. He’s struggled to use his changeup as effectively as he did in 2020 -- which is a problem because this pitch keeps batters off balance and pairs well with his mid 90’s fastball. If he’s not deceiving hitters with the change, it becomes more difficult for him to be successful. It may just be early season struggles however, as his expected stats look promising (.333 xwOBA and 4.12 xERA), but until he turns the corner I feel comfortable assuming he’ll give up some runs.

Royals starter Mike Minor has been regressing since his curiously dominant 2019 season with the Rangers. Most of the success was due to luck and circumstance and it appears his performance since the start of 2020 has been more in line with what he actually is. Minor carries a 5.26 ERA/5.19 xERA and .348 wOBA/.363 xWOBA against him this season. He’s a guy that will get you innings and likely prevent major damage, but is certainly susceptible to giving up runs.

Combine the performance from these starting pitchers with taxed bullpens on each side and I’d expect to see more than 7.5 runs at cloudy Kauffman Stadium.

Game total o7.5 -115 up to -125.

Rays @ A’s (McClanahan vs Irvin)

My model says the Rays should actually be -120 favorites in this game as opposed to the current line at +110. Looking to avoid the sweep in Oakland, I’ll gladly back the road Rays to grab this win behind top prospect Shane McClanahan on the mound.

The A’s are the fastest team in baseball to reach 20 victories and are looking to build on that momentum here at home. Over the past 3 seasons of success they have been a team that thrives against left handed pitching, and that’s no different this year as they have a .334 wOBA and 123 wRC+. It’s no question they’ll have confidence going against the Rays lefty in this one, but it’s unclear if McClanahan is on a different level than the talent they’ve seen so far. And even if they do get to the rookie, the Rays are notorious for adjusting on the fly and using their strong bullpen to mitigate any big damages.

The Rays are one of my favorite teams to follow because of how dynamic their roster is on a per game basis. Manager Kevin Cash has a roster full of utility players that can bat anywhere in the lineup and play anywhere in the field. They have almost no star power, so there are no big egos the manager has to worry about. They simply look at the matchup presented and build the perfect lineup using the depth they have to win that game, which is different from most teams who put out very similar lineups every day. Sure there are advantages to having a consistent lineup, but it seems the Rays have a roster of guys who are open to this strategy and it works well.

The Rays also hit lefties well and I trust Cash will be building a lineup specifically built to beat Cole Irvin today in Oakland so I’ll be hoping on them at plus money for both the F5 and full game.

I’m on Tampa at -110 F5, and +110 full game.

Phillies @ Braves (Nola vs Ynoa)

A Sunday Night baseball rematch from a few weeks back, the Braves and Phillies square off after an 8-7 slog on Saturday. This one is pretty simple folks -- this game features two good offenses and tired bullpens. The Braves used a total of 5 relievers for at least 15 pitches, while the Phillies used 4 for at least 15 on Saturday. Each time a relief pitcher throws 15 I give them a .25 run penalty in my model as it’s standard for a reliever to lose some velocity and control when working 2 days in a row. Once the starters exit this game, the bullpens will be extra taxed and likely be more susceptible to giving up some runs.

My model projects this total at 9.15 runs which is over a full run higher than the current line of 8.

I’m on the over of  8 runs at -105 and would take it down to -120.