MLB Edges for 5-21

Friday May 21st, 2021

We’ve got a full Friday night slate full of intriguing matchups heading into the weekend. While this won’t be a typical     average Joe night with NHL and NBA playoffs drawing casual fan attention, we still shouldn’t have any trouble finding some edges. Let’s dive into some great matchups.

Matchups I’m Targeting

• White Sox @ Yankees
• Mets @ Marlins
• Rays @ Blue Jays
• Cubs @ Cardinals
• Athletics @ Angels
• Dodgers @ Giants

White Sox @ Yankees (Rodon vs Montgomery)

The White Sox and Yanks each enter this series on a roll. The White Sox have been white hot since day 1, featuring the best offense in baseball and have seen several of their up-and-coming arms go from average to good (Rodon, Cease), despite all the negative news about Tony La Rusa. The Yankees of course saw a slower start to the season before turning things around over the last few weeks. Coming into the season the Yanks had filled their rotation with guys who generally had some question marks surrounding them, but those questions have been answered in May as this rotation is shaping up to be more than serviceable to support their big offense.

The edge in this game goes to the White Sox who should be feasting their eyes on lefty starter Jordan Montgomery for the Yankees. Chicago has the top performing offense in baseball largely because of the work they’ve done vs the southpaws. They’re posing a gaudy .372 wOBA and 142 wRC+ vs lefties, which is 15% higher than the second rated Astros.

Odds suggest this game is a toss up, but by model projects the White Sox to win 56% of the time which is plenty enough for me to position myself on their side in this one vs the lefty.

I like the White Sox F5 -115, and full game ML -105.

Mets @ Marlins (Stroman vs Holloway)

This matchup features two of the most anemic offenses in baseball thus far in 2021, so if you like offense this isn’t the game for you. Better yet, not only are two poor offensive squads matching up, but they’re doing it in one of the lowest scoring parks in all of baseball. Nevertheless, this matchup is intriguing due to the simple fact it’s an NL East matchup. This division is likely to go down to the wire as no team can seem to find separation, so every W will count more within the division

My model projects the Mets to win this game on the road 55% of the time which is 4.7% expected value over the current line of -105. Though the Mets are losing Pete Alonso and several other players to the IL, I trust the arm of Marcus Stroman to keep the fish at bay in both the 1st 5 innings and full game.

Stroman has been dominant in 2021 with a 1.99 ERA/3.97 xERA and a .313 xwOBA against. He’s primarily a sinkerballer who generates 50% of his contact into ground balls, and rarely gives up the home run ball (.66 per 9 innings). His sinker/slider combo has been especially dominant this year as he’s added a cutter to the mix to deceive hitters and induce more out zone swings.

I like the Mets -110 F5 and -105 Full Game in a low scoring game.

Rays @ Blue Jays (Glasnow vs Kay)

The cross town rival Rays and Jays meet for the battle of St. Petersburg, FL in a weekend series that should be fun to watch. The Rays have come into their own over the month of May as they are on a similar path to the one they carved out last season on their way to the World Series. They’re extremely dynamic and can adjust offensively or defensively to anything their opponent throws at them. They’re roster exemplifies the epitome of autonomy, mastery, and purpose -- as they’re guys are clearly bought into the system Tampa runs. Meanwhile the Blue Jays have struggled the last week or so coming into this series as their bats have not been able to wield them out of trouble as frequently as they did in April.

The line in this matchup is shaded purely based on the right arm of Tyler Glasnow who has been outstanding this season. After a dominant 2020, he’s come out in 2021 with the same poise and more consistency. He’s as true of an ace as you could want, but I think he’s got his work cut out for him in Dunedin against the potent Jays lineup in a minor league park.

Location of the game aside, my model projects the Blue Jays win this game over 46% of the time which is about 3% higher than the current odds suggest. Again, the line is shaded this high purely due to Glasnow which is valid, but I question if he’ll find the same comfort in the confines of Jays Park in Dunedin which is a nightmare for pitchers.

I’ll take my chances with the Jays offense at home in their bandbox against the dominant Glasnow while the Jays employ their bullpen strategy which has found plenty of success this season.

Give me the Jays +130 down to +125.

Cubs @ Cardinals (Hendricks vs Martinez)

My model says the Cardinals should actually be -120 favorites in this game as opposed to the current line at +110 in a rivalry matchup at home. It’s unclear what the book sees in Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks to list him and the feeble Cubs offense as favorites on the road in this matchup.

Hendricks comes into this matchup with a 6.23 ERA which of course is much higher than his preseason projection of 3.75. He’s struggled to use his fastball as effectively as he did in recent years -- which is a problem because this pitch keeps batters off balance and pairs well with the deception in his sinker/changeup mix. If he’s not deceiving hitters with the sink/change, it becomes more difficult for him to be successful. It also appears that he’s becoming more susceptible to the long ball as he’s on pace to demolish his career high.

Although Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez has been shaky this season in his own right, he’ll be facing a Cubs lineup that has failed to do much damage all year. I’ll gladly side with the home squad’s inconsistencies in a game that should be priced at a pick em’.

I’m on the Cardinals +120 and would take them down to +105.

A’s @ Angels (Kaprielian vs Quintana)

My model says the A’s should win this game 62% of the time which is a 8.62% edge on the current line of -115. These two teams are headed in completely different directions as the Angels have receded back to the basement of the AL West while the A’s continue to surge forward.

The A’s are a team that can win in many different ways -- but they likely won’t need to get gritty to win this one in Anaheim. Over the past 3 seasons of success they have been a team that thrives against left handed pitching, and that’s no different this year as they have a .334 wOBA and 123 wRC+. It’s no question they’ll have confidence going against the lefty Quintana in this one, as he’s surrendered a .355 xwOBA against and sports a 9.00 ERA.

With the Angels on a downward slide without their start Mike Trout, I’ll gladly take the A’s as short road favorites with promising starter James Kaprielian on the mound in his second start after dominating the Red Sox in Boston.

I’m on Oakland at -115 and would take them up to -125

Dodgers @ Giants (Bauer vs Wood)

This one is pretty simple… it’s the Dodgers who still have the eye of public sentiment here in mid May as they square off with the first place Giants. That’s the only reason why this line is so high in this Trevor Bauer featured matchup.

So I’ll keep it simple here and say this line is simply too high for the home Giants that have been able to win in seemingly all ways this season, and against all opponents. My model projects the Dodgers win this game with Bauer at the helm 56% of the time which is over 5% lower than the current odds suggest.

Not for nothing but the Dodgers have struggled against lefties as they rank 22nd in all of baseball with a 89 wRC+ (11% lower than MLB average), and they’ll be facing Alex Wood who has been very strong in each of his starts this season with an xERA of 2.74 and xwOBA against of .271. On top of that the Dodgers just aren’t the same team as they’ve been over the last several years right now due to injuries.

Give me the Giants at home +135 down to +125.