MLB Betting Edges for 8-25-23

The Unwritten Rules

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer
What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy
You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable).

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Friday Night Dogs

As is typical for many Friday nights throughout the season my model is showing value on several underdogs as the market looks to take advantage of public bettors backing the heavy favorites, especially those playing at home. This time of year in general is a good point to find value on underdogs who have been left for dead following acquisitions made at the trade deadline and loss of playoff hope. Although the talent distribution in the league has swung its pendulum in the direction of those playoff contenders, the bottom dwellers still employ full rosters of professional players who will not take nights off despite the fact they “aren’t supposed” to win these games. And the data agrees as I’m seeing several good spots to take a position on this trend.

Underdog Matchups I’m Targeting for the Day

• Astros @ Tigers
• Guardians @ Blue Jays
• Dodgers @ Red Sox
• Padres @ Brewers
  

Each of the above matchups fits the criteria of an underdog who is being devalued in a position because they are matching up with a playoff-contending team. I recommend wagering the same unit share on each of these teams as plus money underdogs and hope to go at least 2-2 on the night to make a profit.

Keep in mind there is a reason these teams are underdogs – it’s not pretty to invest your hard-earned money in some of these teams who we know have disappointed and underperformed consistently all year, but trusting in the data and accuracy of the model at statistical significance has to be the focus.

Model projection & accuracy aside, consider how and why odds makers are offering betting lines at their value. They are obviously in the business of making money and know that most public bettors are going to side with the favorite – so knowing that they shade juice against the favorite which diminishes the statistical advantage for them and increases that advantage for the underdog.

Even though the vast majority of bets for each of the above games are coming in on the favorite, there is a disproportionate amount of money coming in on each underdog – this is likely “sharper money” from professional bettors who have also taken a position on the dogs due to the expected value that is rendering in their models.

Astros @ Tigers (Valdez vs Manning)

Framber Valdez has become a household name in Major League Baseball and rightfully so. He’s pitching to the tune of 3.55 ERA this season but his xERA is showing up nearly a run higher at 4.30 which indicates he has been a bit fortunate. While I still believe he’s a very good pitcher who is capable of improving those marks, it does suggest some regression is looming, and therefore his odds to help the Astros win this matchup are a bit too inflated, leaving value on the home Tigers.

Detroit will have Matt Manning on the hill who has struggled this season while dealing with an injury. While I don’t expect Manning to light the world on fire facing this Astro lineup, I do think he’s showing signs of improvement and can keep the game close before handing the ball off to his rested bullpen.

My model shows a 3% statistical edge in backing the Tigers at +155 to steal this game at home.

Guardians @ Blue Jays (Bibee vs Bassit)

A common denominator between this matchup and the Tigers/Astros is rest. Again this is a spot where Cleveland rested on Thursday while Toronto played in Baltimore before traveling home. That gives the Guardian bullpen a boost coming into this matchup where they can decide to give their starting pitcher a needed boost versus the Jays who will likely be looking to get more out of Chris Bassit.

Chris Bassit has been consistent this season but has not lived up to his preseason projections. He’s pacing at a 4.39 xERA which is nearly a full run higher than he was projected, and giving up a career-high 9.4% barrel rate.

Although the Guardians have surely underperformed to date and were quasi-sellers at the deadline, they still have pop in the lineup that can produce on any night. The problem has been consistency. Even if their bats don’t light the world on fire in this matchup I still like starting pitcher Tanner Bibee who is sporting a 3.66 xERA and is especially tough against LHH.

The Guardians at +146 have a 5.96% edge over the market – take them down to +135.

Dodgers @ Red Sox (Lynn vs Crawford)

It's no secret that Lance Lynn has been a very different pitcher during recent his stint with the Dodgers than he was in his White Sox tenure. Lynn has posted a 2.87 xFIP and averaged 6 innings per outing since landing in LA, which is far from the 5.60 ERA and 4.99 FIP he was averaging in Chicago. But going into Fenway Park and facing a hot Red Sox lineup will be his biggest test in a Dodger uniform to date, and I project that the market has come too far back around on him.

Kutter Crawford has put up strong numbers so far this season but has struggled in two straight outings heading into the difficult matchup. He’s struggled most in the home confines of Fenway Park where he owns a 5.60 ERA, which may not bode well vs the Dodger lineup.

Ultimately both pitchers have deficiencies that can be exploited by the opposing offense – so in what I make out to be a slugfest I’ll gladly side with the home team at plus money.

My model shows a 6% statistical edge in backing the Red Sox at +112 to get to Lynn and win this game at home.

Padres @ Brewers (Darvish vs Woodruff)

The Padres have been disappointing all season but if there's a bright spot to be found it's in their performance on the road. Yu Darvish enters this game with a 3.66 xERA which is significantly lower than his actual ERA which sits at 4.35. Yu has been relying more on his Cutter, Splitter, and Curveball this season which has kept hitters off-balance and unable to make solid contact (6.8% barrel rate). While he hasn’t had very much run support at home, the bats tend to warm up away from Petco Park, which is what I’m willing to bet here.

Brandon Woodruff is still getting his feet under him after returning from injury in early August. He’s posting a 5.44 xFIP in 3 outings which is much higher than his projected 3.25 FIP for the season. While he’s still working back into form, I’m happy to back this Padre lineup that is still one of the most potent in all of baseball on their best day despite their struggles.

I will gladly back the Padres at +102 behind Darvish and the road Padre bats – this is a 5.83% edge as my model projects San Diego wins this game 53% of the time.