MLB Betting Edges for 6-11

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer
What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy
You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Friday June 11th, 2021

Public bettor Friday begins with the traditional matinee game at Wrigley Field on the North Side of Chicago. It’s truly a sure sign of summer when you can knock off work a bit early and watch the Cubs playing at iconic Wrigley Field on a sun filled afternoon, but it’s even more special when they’re hosting the rival St. Louis Cardinals in this spot. On top of that, Wrigley Field is officially allowing full capacity for fans for the first time since 2019 so we’re sure to see some fan antics coming from the bleacher section today. You couldn’t ask for a better start to some great weekend baseball, so let’s dive in and see where the value lays this afternoon.

Matchups I’m Targeting

• Cardinals @ Cubs
• Braves @ Marlins
• White Sox @ Tigers
• Orioles @ Rays

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Cardinals @ Cubs (Oviedo vs Stewart)

As was mentioned in the preview above, this 1:20pm central time first pitch at Wrigley Field is a staple for any summer Friday afternoon. Combine the aesthetics of a full capacity Wrigley Field with two of the contending teams in the NL Central and you’ve got yourself a must watch ballgame. As it stands today, the Cubs are tied atop the NL Central leaderboard with the Milwaukee Brewers with the Cardinals trailing by 3 games. Coming into the season you may not have predicted the Cubs to be in contention, but they’ve really been able to turn things around with the bats from a year ago, and their bullpen has been best in all of baseball. Meanwhile the Cardinals had high hopes entering the season before middling their way through April and May, while they’ve really tailed off so far in June. The Cards were once the favorite to win this division but now have just a 9.1% chance to overcome the Cubs and Brewers in that race, and just a 14.6% chance to make the playoffs overall according to Fangraphs.

Will this unexpected trend continue for the Cubs as they contend against the odds or will the Cardinals eventually catch their breath and overcome as the preseason predictions projected?

Cardinals starting pitching

So far in 2021 the Cardinals starting rotation has experienced some turmoil as ace Jack Flaherty largely struggled before recently entering the IL, while other top arms Kwang Hyun Kim and Miles Mikolas are also on the mend. They’ll turn to their 23-year-old RHP Johan Oviedo to make his 6th start of the big league club after spending portions of April and May at AAA. He relies on a fastball/slider combo which he throws over 75% of the time. He’s most effective when he mixes his pitches well and keeps the ball low in the strike zone, where he induces over 52% of contact into ground balls. When he falls behind in counts he’s been prone to leaving the ball over the plate where he becomes much more hittable, and batters are able to generate hard contact as 31% of all contact he allows is considered “hard hit”.

Oviedo’s 5.25 ERA is backed up by his 5.45 xFIP and his preseason ERA projection of exactly 5.25. His expected weighted on base average or “xwOBA” of .361 is up from his actual wOBA of .340 combined with his BABIP of .239 suggests he’s due for regression in the luck department on the 31% of balls put in play with hard contact. He doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters and is prone to allowing walks (6.5 BB/9), so it’s going to be important for Oviedo to get ahead in counts early against a Cubs offense that has newfound plate discipline in 2021.

Ultimately it’s going to be important for guys like Oviedo to pitch well for the Cards in the coming weeks as several of their star pitchers are on the IL. A good way to set the tone would be for Oviedo to hone in on some of his blemishes and put his team in a position to win important games within the division like this one.

What is the wind up to today?

With any game set at Wrigley Field, the most important factor to consider before placing a bet is the wind. Of course Wrigley is notorious for having strong winds, whether it be carrying routine fly balls over the ivey and netting into the bleachers, or pushing towering would-be home runs back into the yard. Because of this phenomenon sports books will typically wait to release betting totals until just hours before the game. Today was no different as it took most books until around 7am eastern time to release today’s total of 9.

With 5-10 mph winds expected to be blowing IN from center on an 80 degree afternoon on the North Side, the rather high total of 9 is listed for today’s action. Without considering the wind, my model makes the total for this game about 7.5. Is the weather really enough to push the line for this game up 1.5 runs from my projection? According to Sports Insights'  weather data, the wind is actually set to increase as the game goes on and blow directly in from center field all afternoon.

Cubs - Cardinals Pick

With Kyle Hendricks getting scratched from this start and Kohl Stewart filling his place, I believe the total was adjusted incorrectly. In 2 starts this season Stewart has a 3.12 ERA and 7 strikeouts. With the recent spell of cool bats for the Cardinals outside of Tyler O’neil, I believe Stewart will hold his own in this start before handing the ball over to one of the top bullpens in baseball that was afforded a rest day on Thursday. Combine this with Johan Oviedo putting his best effort forward to solidify a spot in the Cardinal rotation and moderate winds blowing in, I like the under in this game.

Under 9 runs +100, down to -115.

Braves @ Marlins (Morton vs Alcantara)

Depending on how you view it, the NL East is either the worst division in baseball or the most intriguing. Only one team currently has a record over .500 and the division leading Mets have the worst ranking for any 1st place team thus far. Coming into the season the Braves we’re not only the favorite to win this divisional after coming one game away from beating the eventual World Series champion Dodgers, but they were largely viewed as a team to make it right back to the LCS. So far that has been far from the truth as they sit with a record of 29-31 and just suffered back to back gut wrenching losses to divisional foe Philadelphia on the road.

Meanwhile the Marlins are right about where they were expected to be at this point before the season started. They’re a scrappy team that has the ability to win any time they take the field, largely due to their stellar starting pitching. With a record of 27-35 they’ve been far from impressive, but have consistently remained in almost any game they play. The biggest question for them is whether they’ll string a few runs together to support their pitchers on any given day.

Luckily for each team it’s only early June and there’s a ton of time to right the ship and gain ground on the division leading Mets. According to Fangraphs the Braves and Marlins have a 15.6% and 14.1% chances to make the playoffs respectively.

Marlins Starting Pitching

Marlins starting pitching continues to be the leading narrative with the 2021 club as their team ERA ranks 7th for all starting staffs at 3.31 and 8th in wOBA against at .292. A leading contributor to those numbers has been top of the rotation arm Sandy Alcantara who has not only been dominant this season, but dominant late into games. He’s averaging at least 6 innings per start and has pushed that average higher in his two most recent starts going 8 innings in each.

Through 13 starts Alcantara has a 3.30 ERA but his xERA of 2.88 indicates he’s been even better. Like most sinkerballers, Alcantara pitches to contact and generates 54% of that contact into ground balls. He mixes a 97mph fastball with an equally fast sinker while changing speeds effectively with his slider and changeup -- with the slider ultimately being his best out pitch (35% whiff). With a wOBA against of .275, Alcantara is performing well above league average and keeping his team in every game he pitches despite not receiving a ton of offensive support.

The Marlins rank 22nd in wRC+ this season which is the leading factor for why they find themselves with a record well under .500, because as previously mentioned their starting pitching has been stellar. Luckily for them it doesn’t take a ton of support to help Alcantara, so the Marlins offense that recently welcomed back key top of the order man Starling Marte likely will only need to do the bare minimum.

What's wrong with the Braves?

It seems like we’re all waiting for this Braves club, who returned most of their roster from a year ago, to get back on track and play the way we expect. Not only did they return most of their key contributors from 2020, but they added some premier talent which includes SP Charlie Morton who’s been remarkably reliable everywhere he’s been.

Like Alcantara, Morton is a sinkerballer who looks to generate ground balls and soft contact. He has a 33.9% hard hit rate and his 49% ground ball rate ranks 13th in the majors this year. He’s also increased the velocity of his fastball and sinker about 1mph from last year to 95.1 and 94.3 respectively.

Morton is as reliable as they come and you pretty much know what to expect from him in each start, but what will his offense give him against a tough Marlins starter on the road? The Braves have started to put things together of late as most of their offensive ranks are creeping into the top 10 in baseball. As always, they rely on the bat of leadoff man Ronald Acuna Jr. to make them go, while Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have been their other key catalysts.

Marlins - Braves Pick

My model projects the Marlins to win this game 53.33% of the time which is 6.93% expected value over the current line of +115. With this matchup coming down to the strengths of each team; Alcantara for Miami and the bats for Atlanta. In this case I’ll side with the model and the numbers for RHP Sandy Alcantara who has only been getting better of late. I also like the Marlins +100 for the 1st 5 innings in this bout.

Marlins +115 full game, and +100 F5.  

White Sox @ Tigers (Giolito vs Skubal)

White Sox vs LHP

The handicap for this matchup is pretty simple -- White Sox vs lefties. The Sox’ 2021 numbers vs LHP rank first in all of baseball. With a 125 wRC+ and .348 wOBA against, it’s fair to say any opposing lefty does not look forward to facing this lineup. Middle of the order bats Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, and Yermin Mercedes have been absolutely devastating vs lefties this season which help contribute to the success in run creation for this lineup.

Tarik Skubal

Tigers starter Tarik Skubal hasn’t amounted to the prospect hype he once received prior to the 2020 season. In 10 starts this season, Skubal owns a 4.33 ERA but his xERA is over a full run higher at 5.42. His wOBA against is well above leave average at .357 and he’s given up lots of hard hit contact including 14.6% of all contact as “barrels” or perfect contact. He’s in for a tough outing against the best team in baseball against the lefties.

Tigers - White Sox Pick

My model projects the Astros win this game nearly 60% of the time which is perfectly in line with the current betting line of -165, so I won’t be taking a side in this one. Instead I’m looking to play the White Sox vs lefties as a team total of over 4.5 runs for the full game. My model projects the southsiders score over 5 runs in this game which gives us nearly a 5% expected value edge in this one.

White Sox team total over 4.5 runs -125.

Orioles @ Rays (Akin vs Yarbrough)

Contrary to popular belief over the last few seasons, the Orioles have a strength. Though they lack in many areas of the game and their record reflects that, their bats have not been ALL bad this season as they’ve really hit lefties well. Not only will that be a narrative for the Orioles, but the Rays too hit the south paws well. Let’s go under the hood for each offense to see how to play these strengths to our money's advantage.

Orioles

The 2021 Orioles have a 127 wRC+ and .352 wOBA against lefties. That’s not a mistake. They face Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough today in Tampa who has been extremely consistent over the past few seasons. This year he’s posting a 3.95 ERA with a slightly higher xERA of 4.27. He limits hard contact but is susceptible to giving up runs as he currently possesses a .320 wOBA against which is right in line with league average. With a fairly average starter who pitches to contact and is sporting a .270 BABIP, it’s likely the Orioles will be able to continue their hot hitting vs lefties and score some runs in this one.

Rays

Meanwhile, the Rays have a 100 wRC+ and .301 wOBA against lefties. Although these numbers are at a league average pace, I trust this Rays lineup to generate runs against the Oriole starter. Keegan Akin has been a bright spot in the Oriole rotation so far this year. He’s posting a 3.60 ERA with a slightly lower xERA of 3.22. Although his numbers seem good from the outside it’s likely he’s had some luck on his side thus far. Akin relies on the strikeout pitch to minimize damage, so he’ll need to work ahead in counts and capitalize against a Rays team that strikes out the most in baseball.

Although it appears Akin has the advantage in this matchup, I still trust in the Rays to piece together a lineup that will have success against him. They are very innate at exploiting weaknesses vs the opposing starter with the correct lineup combinations.

Rays - Orioles Pick

My model suggests there's value on the F5 over in this game as both the Orioles and Rays should have success against the opposing starter. With the current line sitting at 4, my model shows there's a 12% edge here.

Over 4 runs F5 -110, up to -120.

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