MLB Betting Edges for 6-08

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer

What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy

You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Tuesday June 8th, 2021

We’re back with a fully stacked slate of baseball with brand new matchups after a quiet Monday evening around the league. Early this week we’ll have the delight of catching several contending teams meeting in what could be eventual playoff scenarios. Can you imagine if the season ended this week? Crazy enough, we’re already approaching the 60 game mark for most teams, which of course meant the conclusion of the regular season in 2020. Luckily this is 2021 and the season is far from over -- although the standings are starting to take shape here in mid-June,  there’s still plenty of time for clubs to rise or fall as the summer heats up. Let’s jump into some of the most valuable matchups based on my model for this evening.

Matchups I’m Targeting

• Braves @ Phillies
• Rockies @ Marlins
• Astros @ Red Sox
• Cubs @ Padres

Braves @ Phillies (Smyly vs Nola)

This matchup between two NL East foes feature two very middling teams that come into today’s game under .500. Neither has been able to generate any momentum within the division, which has largely been a common trend over the course of the last few seasons. If you were told at the beginning of the season the Mets are in 1st place with the Braves and Phillies each 3.5 games back, you likely wouldn’t be surprised. However you would almost certainly not expect to hear that the Mets are basically playing with a roster full of AAA and replacement level players, while major offseason addition Francisco Lindor has been a shell of himself to date. That’s just how bad each of these would-be contending teams have played thus far. Even after these less-than-expected starts, the Phillies and Braves have a 19.6% and 15.7% chance to make the playoffs respectively, according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, each of these teams are lucky the season doesn’t end this week as it did in 2020, and therefore they each have time to turn things around in their quest to catch the New York Mets.

A good start in that quest would be winning a June series vs the other. Can either of these teams begin to make up ground in the east and solidify themselves as a legitimate playoff contender?

Can the Braves start hitting RHP like it’s 2020?

The 2020 version of this Braves squad ranked 1st in all of baseball against RHP, which of course was a large part of their success. From posting 126 wRC+ last season they have regressed down to about league average at a 102 RC+ -- and this is essentially the same roster which is puzzling.

As a team the Braves have a .322 wOBA (about league average), but are seeing an expected wOBA or xwOBA of .340 -- meaning they are due for some positive regression with the bats. Now that summer is starting to heat up and several members including Freddy Freeman are starting to get things back on track, I expect to see more runs from the Braves’ offense.

Are the Phillies actually over performing?

Coming into this season the Phillies had high expectations despite addressing some of the key needs for their ball club. As a result, they’ve really struggled to score runs, and when they do it’s required their bullpen arms to work extra hard as they’ve been short staffed. The roster is made up of concentrated talent on all fronts (SP, RP, and Batting), but does not possess any depth in any of those departments.

Ace pitcher Aaron Nola has pitched very well thus far with a 3.84 ERA and .299 wOBA against, plus his expected numbers suggest he’s been even better with a 3.10 xERA and .290 xwOBA against. Although he’s been good, his offense has failed to hold up their end of the bargain during his starts as his 4 win, 4 loss record suggests.

Tonight is a perfect opportunity for the Philly offensive to get rolling as they face lefty starter Drew Smyly who has really struggled in 2021. With a 6.00 ERA and .364 wOBA against, it hasn’t been a pretty sight when this lefty has taken the mound.

Braves - Phillies Pick

My model suggests the total of this game is too low for the reasons mentioned above. With positive regression looming for the Braves offense against RHP, and the Phillies offense has an easy opportunity to put some runs on the board against a familiar face. At the time of writing the listed total is at 8.5 runs -- my model shows this game total to nearly 9.5 so I’ll gladly take the over in this interdivisional matchup.

Over 8.5 runs -115, up to 9 -105.

Rockies @ Marlins (Senzatela vs Lopez)

This matchup features two very forgettable teams in 2021 as neither has much intrigue… at least in a positive sense. The Marlins we’re an interesting story in 2020 making the playoffs and knocking off the NL Central winning Cubs. However this season they’ve been stuck in the middle of the pack with the rest of the middling NL East teams that have not been able to put the right foot forward and break away from the pack. Thus far the story for the Marlins has been their inability to score runs with any consistency combined with a solid starting pitching staff. Conversely the Rockies who are normally an offensive powerhouse due to where they play their home games, have become known for the exact opposite. This year’s Rockies have been abysmal on the road -- historically bad, to the point you almost want to watch. Can either of these teams break the mold they’ve created for themselves thus far?

Marlins Starting Pitching

Marlins starter Pablo Lopez has been stellar so far this year posting a 2.82 ERA and .296 wOBA against but has a W/L record of 1-3. For someone that’s been as dominant as him it’s rare to see such a poor record, indicating he’s had very little run support during his outings. He faces a Rockies team at home that has only been able to generate a 69 wRC+ against RHP so far in 2021 (that’s 31% lower than league average).

Rockies on the Road

This years Rockies are on pace to have the worst road record in baseball history. Through the end of May the Rockies had a 3-22 record on the road or a .120 winning percentage. Not surprisingly, the prime culprit has been the offense. Playing home games in Coors Field at a mile above sea level helps hitters' superficial production at home, but there's a real hangover effect for those same hitters when they go out on the road. Speaking of, the Rockies in road games this season are batting .197/.268/.288. If that somehow holds up, then the 2021 Rockies would be the first team in MLB history to bat below .200 in road games across a full season.

Rockies - Marlins Pick

My model projects the Marlins to win this game 68.7% of the time which is 5.11% expected value over the current line of -175. It won’t take much of an edge for me to automatically fade this Rockies team on the road the rest of the season, but this one is especially a no brainer as they have a very tough pitching matchup vs Lopez.

Marlins -175 to win a full unit.

Astros @ Red Sox (Valdez vs Perez)

After these two teams met last week in Houston, the second round of this series heads to a humid Boston for what should be a heated matchup between these second place squads. The Astros we’re able to take 3 out of 4 at home so the Red Sox will be looking to return the favor and win this series to even this series up. Of course these teams don’t like each other either, so that only adds fuel to the fire in this contest as the summer begins to heat up in the north east -- this series could go a long way in determining the playoff picture.

Astros vs LHP

The Stros’ 2021 numbers vs LHP rank second only to the Chicago White Sox. With a 125 wRC+ and .343 wOBA against, it’s fair to say any opposing lefty does not look forward to facing this lineup. They’ll be facing starter Martin Perez who has been resurgent in his 2021 campaign thus far posting a 3.09 ERA and .295 wOBA against. Though Perez has been good so far, his underlying advanced metrics may suggest he’s due for some regression. He’s sporting a 4.30 xERA and .330 xwOBA -- both significantly higher than his actual numbers.

Framber Valdez

Astros starter Framber Valdez didn’t start the season on time after sustaining an injury in spring training, but since joining the team has picked up right where he left off in his 2020 campaign. In his first 2 starts since rejoining he’s thrown 11 innings, striking out 14 batters, and only allowing 1.64/9 innings. He’ll have his biggest test thus far facing a Red Sox team that sports one of the best offenses in baseball. Luckily they’ve actually been slightly better vs RHP and SS Xander Bogaerts has been cool of late. Framber should have the advantage in this game as he looks to continue his success in start number 3.

My model projects the Astros win this game over 60.4% of the time which is 4.84% higher than the current odds suggest at -125. I’m also seeing value on the Astros through the first 5 innings and the looming regression is enough for me to want to fade Martin Perez

Astros F5 -120, and full game -125.

Cubs @ Padres (Davies vs Lamet)

Another repeat series from last week in a new location as the Cubs travel to San Diego to face off against the Padres. Game 1 on Monday saw the Padres take an early lead vs starter Adbert Alzolay and never look back as starter Ryan Weather and his bullpen held the Cubs down. After dominating the Padres in Chicago last week, the Cubs’ offense has cooled off minus the bat of Patrick Wisdom who has hit 7 home runs in his first 10 starts. Since Alzolay couldn’t get the job done on Monday, will former Padre Zach Davies be able to seek revenge on his old team?

Sleepy Cubs Offense

To start the season it seemed like the Cubs had picked up right where they left off in 2020 -- largely an offense that relies on home runs and strikes out a ton. If they didn’t run into a 3 run homer on any given day, it was likely they’d be shut out or held to minimal runs. While there’s plenty of turmoil to speak of in the Cub front office, one thing that flew by the wayside this offseason were the under the radar acquisitions made to increase balls in play and on base percentage. Though Kyle Schwarber and Joc Pederson may seem like the same player from the outside, Pederson is actually a much higher on base percentage player while he also crushes RHP, especially the high fastball (which the Cubs struggled with). Other players like Eric Sogard, Jake Marisnick, and Matt Duffy have also helped the Cubs generate base runners for their top sluggers Bryant, Rizzo, Baez to bring home.

This newfound approach offensively has fueled the Cubs to a top 10 hitting ranking during their May winning streak. Since leaving Wrigley Field for a weekend series with the Giants and now a trip down to San Diego, the Cubs have gone cold. Mainly Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez have been the coldest in their last 50 AB’s who are of course their top run creators at the dish.

Dinelson Lamet

Can Padres starter Dinelson Lamet get back on track after an injury plagued off season/beginning of 2021? One of the best pitchers in baseball a year ago has yet to fully return to the starting rotation after battling with throwing arm injuries. If Lamet can get healthy this Padres team becomes much scarier than they already are. In 5 starts this season Lamet has posted a 2.50 ERA but his expected statistics suggest he’s been lucky. Due to the injuries he lacked control and therefore has given up hard contact while leaving pitches over the middle of the plate. All sources say he’s fully healthy and has shown improvements in his last 2 starts so I expect a solid performance against the struggling Cubs offense in this outing.

Cubs - Padres Pick

My model suggests there's value on the under in this game as both the Cubs and Padres have struggled to score of late. With the current line sitting at 8.5, my model shows there's a 6.26% edge here. Not to mention the June gloom in San Diego is still in effect so there should be quite a bit of moisture in the air down in the Gaslamp Quarter Tuesday evening.

Under 8.5 -115, up to -120.

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