MLB Betting Edges for 8-24-23

The Unwritten Rules

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer

What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy

You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable).

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Dog Days Get Away Slate

With the impending football season at our doorstep, MLB is already beginning to take a back seat. However, there are several teams on today's slate who are fighting to stay in their division races and not succumb to their respective backseat narratives.

Matchups I’m Targeting for the Day

• Red Sox at Astros
• Blue Jays at Orioles
• Rangers at Twins
  
  

Red Sox at Astros (Bello vs France)

This is a get away rubber match between two teams who have recently made progress in their respective division races, albeit each under quite different circumstances. The Red Sox are still pacing as the 4th place team in the AL East, still 3 games back of 3rd place Toronto and 11.5 games back of the darling Orioles. The Astros have come on strong since the all star break and find themselves only 1 game back of the skiding Rangers, but are only a half game up on the surging Mariners who swept them at home last season. For Houston to regain their title in the AL West they will want to continue to win series vs teams like Boston, but the Red Sox are not your average 4th place team.

Brayan Bello has continued his breakout season following the all star break sporting a 4.10 xERA and 3.96 xFIP and has held his opponents to a .248 xBA. He uses a unique sinker/changeup combo to induce an above average ground ball rate which is paramount when facing a tough lineup like the Astros. Those Astro bats will be facing Bello for the first time this season which gives a small but useful advantage to the Sox righty.

J.P. France will being toeing the hill for Houston entering with a 4.39 xERA, 4.59 xFIP and has recently been working out of a hybrid bullpen/starter role after the Astros added Justin Verlander at the trade deadline. There nothing in particular that points to regression for France, but its worth noting that his lesser home/road split comes at home and will be expected to go longer in the game as the Houston bullpen has been taxed in games 1 and 2.

Pitching Edge Goes to Boston

Bello and the Red Sox bullpen project to provide their side with a sizable advantage after the Astro bullpen used a total of 7 pitchers who threw over 120 pitches combined in last nights game. I like backing Bello in this spot while he’s facing this Astro lineup for the first time as I think there will be an adjustment period for the hitters. Even if he faulters, he will have a more rested bullpen to hold the line until the Red Sox bats can do damage vs the Astro bullpen.

With both batting lineups projecting at similar outputs, I’ll gladly side with the Red Sox in this matchup who are currently at plus money and rising.

My model projects the Red Sox win this matchup 49% of the time, which is a 4.53% edge on the current price at +125 (44.45% implied).

Boston Red Sox: Full Game ML +125

Market Note:

At the time of writing, the Red Sox are receiving fewer bets, but more of the total money has been wagered in their favor. This indicates larger bettors including sharps are likely on my side with their projection models.

Blue Jays @ Orioles (Berrios vs Gibson)

Here we have a matchup starting pitchers who have been perennial fade candidates over the past couple years and oddly enough they both possess nearly identical xERA and xFIP marks. Each pitcher has posted better results than they did in 2021 or 2022 and have managed to be serviceable arms for their respective teams thus far.

Starting Pitching Neutral

With each starter expected to perform near the same level and projected to throw the same amount of innings, where do we find the edge?

Each bullpen ranks in the top 10 in total ERA and FIP, and neither has a rest advantage over the other.

The lineups project for similar levels of run production, with no noticeable edges in handedness splits, recent hot streaks, or defensive runs saved.

The betting edge worth investing in this matchup is based on market implications. Since the Orioles are the first-place squad it seems they’ve been given some shading on their betting line. The perception surrounding the once beloved Blue Jays has faded ever so slightly leaving value in backing them in this matchup - which historically is a fantastic spot as the road team in a division matchup.

I have the Blue Jays projected as -120 favorites in this one so I’ll gladly take them at -110, and play them all the way to -115.

Total: Fade these guys

As mentioned above, neither of these starting pitchers is likely to set the world on fire. Especially as RHP’s at Camden Yards in late August vs. explosive offenses. My model projects this total closer to 10 runs, giving plenty of value in taking Over 9 at +100.

I also like this game to go Over 9 runs, as I believe each starting pitcher has a clear disadvantage in a matchup that features two very good offenses.

Rangers @ Twins (Heaney vs Lopez)

The Rangers enter this weekend's series with the Twins on a horrendous losing streak but are still grasping to the AL West Division lead with Seattle and Houston nipping at their heels. The Twins are leading the AL Central by proxy as no other team seems to have a pulse in the division. They will be the home team but enter this matchup on short rest after dropping two games in a short series with the Brewers. It's safe to say that both of these teams are looking for some stability as we enter the crucial playoff races that will ensure once the month of September arrives. Let's dive into this matchup and find out where the value lies between these guys.

Andrew Heaney has purely been a league-average pitcher this year after his successful stint with the Dodgers. He’s posting a 4.63 xERA, has allowed more fly balls than his career average, and giving up harder contact than his career average as batters have a 10.3% barrel rate against him. He’s especially struggled when facing right-handed batters where he’s allowing more than a 5.29 ERA.  

Pablo Lopez is a professional pitcher's pitcher as he’s managed to carve out a very successful stint over the past few seasons. He’s a fantastic 3.09 xERA and allowing a career-best .216 batting average against him. His “stuff” doesn’t necessarily stand out as elite, but he’s a very intelligent pitcher who knows when and where to throw each of his five pitches in the arsenal.

He has the pitching advantage in this matchup when compared to Heaney, but will be facing a potent lineup that is looking to get right after a tough stretch of losing.

Are the Twins a team that can take advantage of Heaney?

In short, no the Twins are not likely to hammer Heaney - or anyone for that matter. This lineup has struggled all year long and their lesser split is facing lefties. They rank 30th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ this season when facing southpaws which is simply a statistic that is hard to ignore.

After a tough loss in Wednesday's ballgame over in Milwaukee where the Twins were forced to extend their bullpen into extra innings, this matchup advantage becomes neutral unless you believe their bats can get runs up on the board early.

On top of the Twins hitting woes, the Rangers enter this ballgame after a needed day off so they will have a fully rested bullpen to support Heaney should he falter in the early innings.

I certainly am not a believer in this lineup and will be backing my model which is showing a nearly 6% statistical advantage in taking the Rangers at +110 or better.