Daily MLB Edges for 5-6-21

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer

What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy

You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

---------------------------------------

Thursday May 6th, 2021

It’s matinee baseball day as a load of teams will be playing get away style baseball this afternoon. There’s truly nothing better in 2021 than working from home while theres day baseball playing in the background. We’ve got quite a few good series finialies, so let’s dive into some edges.

Matchups I’m Targeting

• Astros @ Yankees
• Brewers @ Phillies
• Mets @ Cardinals
• Indians @ Royals
• Braves @ Nationals

Astros @ Yankees (McCullers vs Cole)

Any Gerrit Cole takes the mound for the New York Yankees you can expect the public money to be all over the Bronx Bombers. Certainly no difference in this game as the Yanks are receiving 60% of all bets, and 85% of the money. After a slow start to the season it appears the Yankee bats have started to wake up a bit -- especially in this highly anticipated series against the hated Astros. It’s the perfect storm for an overvalued Yankee line, so I’ll be targeting the Astros at a high value.

My model projects this line at Astros +115 ( to win this game 46.5% of the time), which is a 9.5% edge over the current listed line, so I’ll gladly back them to pick up the series final win as they face off against their former teammate Gerrit Cole.

Although the Yanks have been the hotter team of late, each of these offenses are equally potent so to see the Astros line reach upwards of +170, it’s a no brainer that backing them will provide you with a ton of expected value.

I also am intrigued by what Lance McCullers has been able to do this season as he’s posted a .247 wOBA against and has really improved the effectiveness of his curveball. He mixes his sinker and curve really well, creating ground balls and limiting hard hit contact. Although Cole is the bigger name, there really isn’t a huge advantage in the starting pitching department today.

I like the Astros at +175 down to +170.

Brewers @ Phillies (Woodruff vs Wheeler)

My model projects the Brewers to win this game only 60% on the shoulders of Brandon Woodruff and a lesser taxed/more talented bullpen, which is a 5.88% expected edge over the current line so I’ll be looking to back the Brew Crew for this series final.

Starters Woodruff and Wheeler have been two of the most impressive pitchers in baseball to date in 2021, which explains why the total for this game is only 6.5 runs. Each of these pitchers feature sinkers as their primary pitch which in theory should bode well for the under in the home run friendly Citizens Bank Park in South Philly. However I think there’s value in the over as each bullpen has been heavily taxed thus far in the first 3 games of the 4 game series. After these starters exit the game (especially for the Phillies), I believe there's a better chance for the game to go over than the odds suggest -- o6.5 (+100).

The Phillies have had the upper hand this series as they’ve struck early in each of these games, causing the Brewers to play catch up and disabling them to break out their back of the bullpen stars to hold a lead and win. I believe that even if a similar game script occurs in this one, the Brewers will be able to overcome and take the series final win in Philly.

I like the Brewers -125 F5, -120 Full Game, and over 6.5 runs at +100 down to -100.

Mets @ Cardinals (Walker vs Gant)

My model says the Cardinals will win this game 58% of the time which is an 8.5% edge over the current line of -105. I’ll be backing the Cardinals to pick up the series final win in this 4-game series that’s seen the Cards take 2 of the first 3 -- I believe the starting pitching matchup advantage lies with the converted bullpen arm John Gant.

Gant has been effective in 2021 after moving into his starting role from a career in the bullpen. He’s posting a 2.16 ERA and .318 wOBA against in 5 starts, so on the surface he’s done what’s needed in order to put the Cards in a position to win each game he participates in. One thing to caution about Gant is he’s likely due for some regression as his xERA is a whopping 5.50 and xWOBA is up at .372. These underlying issues stem from his higher than average walk rate and low K% which means he’s allowing lots of balls put in play, of which over 36% are considered hard hit.

Although Gant is due for regression I trust the Cardinals defense in this matchup against a Mets team that has not been good at creating BIP’s so far in 2021. Their bats may wake up at some point, but until I see it I’d prefer to fade their offense. Especially with starter Taijuan Walker (also a regression candidate) facing off against the Cardinal offense that has been good of late.

I’m on the Cardinals at home +110 and would bet down to -110.

Indians @ Royals (McKenzie vs Duffy)

My model says the Indians win this game about 47% of the time which is nearly spot on with the current line, so although I do like them to complete the 4 game sweep, there’s just no value in backing them for the full game. However, I do see value on backing starter Triston McKenzie in the first 5 innings against Royals starter Danny Duffy.

So far in 4 starts, McKenzie has performed a bit below his preseason projections -- likely due to a late start to spring and ultimately his season. He’s posting a 5.72 xERA which is quite a bit higher than his preseason projection of 4.36, but I have seen enough improvement in his last 2 starts to think he’s due for positive regression. He’s been plagued with allowing lots of hard hit contact (55%) early in the season, but his control is improving and thus I feel confident in backing him and the improved Indians offense in this one.

The Indians offense was off to one of the slowest starts in baseball but has since improved due to the bats of Franmil Reyes and Jose Ramirez. The two have combined for the majority of hits over this series with the Royals and have primarily contributed to the key runs needed to pull of some of these wins. Both Ramirez and Reyes crush left handed pitching and have already seen Danny Duffy once this season so I expect them to pace the Tribe to a lead after 5 innings.

My model makes this F5 like Indians -101, so I’ll gladly take them at +130 down to +115.

Braves @ Nationals (Smyly vs Lester)

My model projects the total for this game at 9.72 so I’m looking for some underlying reason why I can bet the over 9 in this game that features two lefties that allow lots of hard contact.

Jon Lester has been an incredible pitcher of his career but in the last few years he’s lost some velocity and seemingly has exposed some of his control issues as batters are able to key in on his lower 90’s fastball/cutter combo. His xwOBA is .380 compared to his .272 actual wOBA which proves something isn’t quite right with his surface level statistics.

For Drew Smyly it does not require as deep of a dive to figure out he’s susceptible to allowing runs as he’s posting an 8.05 ERA/7.12 xERA, .413 xwOBA, and is giving up a whopping 55% hard hit rate. Even worse, he’s squaring up with a Nats’ offense that has a .362 wOBA against lefties so far this season.

I expect the ball to be screaming in the DC Naval Yard on Thursday afternoon.

Game total o9 +105 down to -110.