Daily MLB Edges for 5-4-21

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer

What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy

You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Tuesday May 4th, 2021

Matchups I’m Targeting

• White Sox @ Reds
• Astros @ Yankees
• Brewers @ Phillies
• Blue Jays @ Athletics
• Rays @ Angels

White Sox @ Reds (Cease vs Hoffman)

My model projects the Reds to win this game 56.16% of the time, which is a 8.32% edge over the current listed line, so I’ll be backing them to pick up the win in this game that was delayed from Monday.

The Reds put up some of the best offense so far in 2021 with a .330 wOBA. However, even more impressive is they may be due for some positive regression in that category as their expected wOBA in .349. They’ll look to improve their offensive pace against righty Dylan Cease who has impressed to start the year after a strong spring. Cease has terrific “stuff” in his arsenal but has yet to gain control over it to this point in his career. He’s been much better in 2021 posting a 2.42 ERA and .287 wOBA against, but he’ll certainly have his work cut out for him on the road in Cincinnati where the Reds are batting at a .343 wOBA vs righties.

Reds starter Jeff Hoffman has been serviceable so far in 2021 after a very poor 2020 in Colorado. He’ll certainly be looking to the offense to carry the weight in this one, and I’ll be betting that it does.

I like the Reds at +109 down to -105 and over 9 up to -115

Astros @ Yankees (Greinke @ German)

My model projects the Astros to win this game about 52% of the time -- so about a coin flip compared to the current odds of Yankees -121. I’ll gladly back the veteran Greinke on the road at a 4.91% edge.

Yankees starter Domingo German has struggled at times to start the year posting a 4.05 ERA and .346 xwOBA. He’s lacked control of his breaking pitches, thus leaving him vulnerable to throwing the fastball over the plate once he’s down in the count. I don’t see him turning things around against a stingy Astros lineup that is getting healthier as the month of May opens up.

I’m doubling down on the Astros -- -110 F5, and at +110 full game.

Brewers @ Phillies (Lauer vs Nola)

My model projects the Brewers to win this game only 43% of the time which is right in line with the current line of +130 so I won’t be making any pregame picks in this one. The Phillies are so heavily favored solely due to the right arm of starter Aaron Nola who owns a 3.11 ERA and .280 xwOBA against. He’s a true ace pitcher squaring off with back end of the rotation starter Eric Lauer for the Brewers. Lauer threw 5 shutout innings in his first start of the year, but is not someone who you should expect that kind of performance from regularly. It’s likely that the Phillies will be able to capture the lead in the first 5 innings behind Nola and against Lauer.

I do think there are concerns in the Phillies bullpen after a strenuous night on Monday against his same Brewers offense. Closer Hector Neris was forced to throw 30 pitches, while Coonrod and Brogdon also were used, in what ultimately ended in a close win. I think there’s an opportunity to take the Brewers live around the 5th inning if trailing by a run or two (I’d say at +165 or better). Adding Cain and Yelich back to the Brewer lineup should prove to be the spark this team needs to mount comebacks such as this -- in tandem with their strong bullpen.

I’ll be targeting the Brewers live at +165 or better around the 5th inning.

Blue Jays @ Athletics (Kay vs Irvin)

My model actually makes the Blue Jays a slight favorite to win in Oakland using their bullpen strategy on Tuesday. The Jays’ bats have really come alive lately -- especially against left-handed pitching which they’re at 113 RC+ against (13% above leave average).

Vlady Jr. and Co will face lefty Cole Irvin who has been underwhelming to say the least thus far allowing .62 runs per inning pitched while averaging over 5 innings per outing. He’s also allowing a staggering 49% hard hit rate which explains the discrepancy between his wOBA of .325 and his expected wOBA of .372. I expect the Blue Jays to push that actually wOBA up tonight as they hammer Irvin and pace the game making it easy on the bullpen arms who will be participating in this one.

I’m on the Blue Jays F5 +110 and full game at +112.

I also like over 8.5 runs in this game as both teams hit lefties well.

Rays @ Angels (McClanahan vs Cobb)

My model says the Rays should be favored in this game which features #5 prospect Shane McClanahan -- the lefty who throws a staggering 101 sinker. Building on their win from the night before, I think the Rays are in great position for the rookie to make it two in a row in Anaheim.

McClanahan’s first two outings were impressive as he introduced the league to his devastating stuff from the left side posting a .249 xwOBA. I think he’ll do enough against the tough Angels lineup for the Rays to be leading after 5 innings, then give way to the bullpen to take it home for the away team.

A big reason why I trust this number my model is providing for the Rays is due to the metrics of Angels starter Alex Cobb. Cobb has been sufficient thus far in the season but is still posting a 7.17 ERA, .378 wOBA against, and a staggering .469 BABIP. Of course with a BABIP that high you expect some positive regression, but I think for Cobb it’s highlighting the fact he’s allowing a lot of hard contact his defense can’t handle. The Rays are a patient lineup that are typically crafted to attack the opposing starter so I expect a full suite of lefties who will be facing off against Cobb -- giving the advantage to Tampa.

I like the Rays F5 at +115 and full game at +107.