Daily MLB Edges for 4-27

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer

What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy

You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Tuesday April 27th, 2021

Matchups I’m Targeting

• Twins @ Indians
• Nationals @ Blue Jays
• Red Sox @ Mets
• Phillies @ Cardinals
• Padres @ Diamondbacks
• Rockies @ Giants

Twins @ Indians (Maeda @ Civale)

My model projects the Indian’s to win this game 57% of the time, which is a 7.19% edge over the current listed line, so I’ll be backing them to make it two in a row against divisional faux Minnesota on Tuesday.

The Indians have really struggled to hit the ball consistently so far in 2021, but that might not matter against Twins starter Kenta Maeda in this one who is allowing a .345 xwOBA against him in 4 starts. Taking a look under the hood, he has a .400 BABIP and 44.4% hard hit rate so it appears he’s either not in control of his pitches or not fooling hitters like he’s used to.

Aaron Civale on the other hand is off to a great start with a .284 xwOBA against him and a 2.42 ERA. I’ll back the Indians at home at plus money against the Twins starter who doesn’t seem to have it together yet in 2021.

I like the Indian’s at +105 down to -105

Nationals @ Blue Jays (Scherzer @ Thornton)

My model projects this game at about a coin flip -- compared to the current odds of Nationals -125, there is a 7.97% edge on the home away from home Blue Jays. Public perception of Max Scherzer is likely to blame for the inflated line in this game after he made a quality start in his last outing, but this price may be far too high on the road against a tough hitting Jays squad.

The Blue Jays will turn to their bullpen to get through this matchup against Scherzer, and I like what I’ve seen so far from their bullpen games. After having Monday off, their pen is fresh and ready to take on the challenge vs the Nats’ suspect offense. Of course Scherzer is likely to dominate in the early innings, but he’s not capable at this point in the season to go the full 9, so at some point the Jays will get to feat of the below average Nationals bullpen.

I’ll gladly take the Blue Jays at +123 down to +115 at home.

Red Sox @ Mets (Richards @ Peterson)

My model projects the Red Sox to be leading this game after 5 innings this game 55% of the time -- a 14% edge over the current listed line, so I’ll be risking my bet at the hands of Garret Richards (scary) to bring this one home F5.

Although I may not be extremely confident in Richards, I am willing to rely on Boston’s stellar offense which ranks 6th against left handers with 121 wRC+ and get’s to face soft-tossing lefty David Peterson in this one. The once touted rookie from a year ago has not been good in his big league stint thus far allowing a 6.75 ERA over that span. I like the Sox to score big and early against Peterson and be ahead after 5 innings.

I’ll also take a shot on the full game under as both these bullpens have been good to start this season. Once Peterson exits the game, and assuming Richards continues down a better looking path, I trust both pens to keep this came under the total of 8.5.

I like the Red Sox F5 at +140 or better and under 8.5 +100.

Phillies @ Cardinals (Eflin @ Martinez)

My model projects the Cardinals to win this game at 59% of the time, which has 8.27% expected value over the current line, so I’ll be playing the Cardinals here who didn’t use a single bullpen arm in their loss Monday.

Starters Eflin and Martinez have been similar pitchers to this point in the season -- each allowing similar wOBA against and each carry a hard hit % of 49%. The difference in this one may be in the Cardinals bats vs Eflin who has a tendency to give up more fly balls in tandem with that hard hit %. Eflin may also be due for some regression as his .290 wOBA is far lower than his expected wOBA which is .337. Combine regression from Eflin with a more taxed bullpen on the Phillies side, and it gives the advantage to the home Cards in this matchup.

I’m on the Cardinals at -105.

Padres @ Diamondbacks (Paddack @ Kelly)

My model projects the Padres to win this game nearly 62% of the time, but following a taxing series against the Dodgers in LA I want to stay away as it could be a sleepy spot for San Diego. Due to the sleepy spot however, I’m eyeing the total as this could be a spot for limited runs with unsuspecting pitchers on the mound.

Coming into this season Chris Paddack’s rookie charm was in the distant past as he struggled mightily in 2020. So far in 21’ Paddack has performed more along his career trajectory as a prospect, which is about league average with some decent upside. I think he’ll find some success against this D-backs lineup that seems to crush left handed pitching while struggling against righties.

Meanwhile the Padres offense outside of Tatis Jr. has surprisingly struggled this April as they’ve slumped to a .305 wOBA with a 94 and 95 wRC+ against lefties and righties respectively. I think Merrill Kelly may be able to hold them down in this spot for at least a few innings.

I’ll take the F5 u5 -120 down to -125.

Rockies @ Giants (Gonzalez @ Sanchez)

My model projects the Giants at nearly -200 in this game, so I’ll be backing them to follow up last night's thumping with more momentum. Not only do they have a major advantage on the mound, but their offense has been clicking on all cylinders lately -- squaring off against a below league average starter in Chi Chi Gonzalez for the lowly Rockies.

Aaron Sanchez has been great to start the year sporting a 1.83 ERA and .295 wOBA against stat line. He’s a ground ball pitcher (59.3% rate) pitching in the friendly AT&T Park (I know it’s changed names) so he’ll likely be able to keep the ball in the yard against the Rockies who really can only hurt you if they’re hitting the long ball. Give me the Giants to win a full unit in this game at -165 (so that’s risking 1.65 units to win 1). I typically won’t risk more than 1 unit per game to mitigate the risk associated with luck/variance in baseball. But in certain spots it’s necessary to pad your bankroll when you find a favorite of this degree. Sure it will hurt if the Giants can’t pull it out, but just like every other play I make -- it’s worth the risk at this expected value.

Giants -165 to win a full unit.