Daily MLB Edges for 4-23

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer

What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy

You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Friday April 23rd, 2021

It’s public bettor Friday! The day where all the average joes get off work and decide to blindly bet some baseball games, pushing the lines of the favorites much higher than they should be. It’s a day that should be celebrated weekly by sharking the soft lines and cashing in on some underdogs. Let’s dive in and see where to feast this week.

Matchups I’m Targeting

• A’s @ Orioles
• Yankees @ Indians
• Angels @ Astros
• Reds @ Cardinals
• Phillies @ Rockies
• Padres @ Dodgers

A’s @ Orioles (Irvin @ Lopez)

My model projects the A’s to win this game at 64% of the time, which is over a 9% edge over the current listed line, so I’ll be backing them to win their 12th straight game.

The A’s are getting an even 80% of bets and 79% of money, so it looks like sharps and public are aligned on this one. However, one concern is the line has only moved 5-6 cents in favor of the A’s. Low for a team receiving this much support.

I like A’s at -125 up to -130

Yankees @ Indians (Montgomery @ Allen)

My model projects the Indians to win this game at 47.7% of the time -- a 4.25% edge over the current listed line, so I’ll be taking the Tribe to redeem their loss from Thursday afternoon. I also project the total of this game at 9.02 which is a slight edge over the 8.5 listed total. It may not be a huge edge, but I like each offenses matchup against the opposing pitchers enough to side with the over.

This is a classic public bettor Friday game as the Yankees are currently receiving enough bets to push their line up to -165 up from the opening of -135. The Indians got off to a hot start before allowing the Yankees bats to heat up and overcome the deficit, but I certainly don’t trust the Yanks’ cold bats to repeat last nights performance enough to back them at such a high number.

I like Indians at +145 down to +130, and Over 8.5 -105 up to -110.

Angels @ Astros (Heany @ Greinke)

My model projects the Astros to win this game at 54.5% of the time -- a -1.25% edge over the current listed line, so as much as I’d like to take them at home against a lefty (whom they crush), I can’t. I do however like them to be ahead after 5 innings behind Zack Greinke and against the left handed Angels starter.

The Astros are have an astounding .361 wOBA vs lefties thus far this season, and I expect them to score some runs against Angels starter Andrew Heaney at home in this one.

I like the Astros at -140 F5 to win a full unit.

Reds @ Cardinals (Gray @ Kim)

My model projects the Cardinals to win this game at 52% of the time -- which has about 1% value over the current line, but I’ll be playing the Cards in this spot with starter KK Kim taking the mound at home. Kim dazzled in 2020 -- and although he got off to a rough start to begin this season, I like him to bounce back here at home, especially with the Cardinals offense behind him.

I like the Cardinals small at +100 and wouldn’t play them below -105.

Phillies @ Rockies (Velasquez @ Marquez)

My model projects the Cardinals to win this game at 50% of the time on the road against Rockies ace German Marquez. That is about 5% value over the current line, so I’ll gladly back the Phillies and their hot bats on the road in Colorado.

Although Colorado has a clear edge on the mound, I don’t think Marquez will be able to pitch the entire game before giving it up to to “rocky” Rockies bullpen. The Phillies have had a knack for making late game comebacks this season so I expect them to be able to pull this one out in the end.

I will gladly bet the Phillies at +110 down to +100.

Padres @ Dodgers (Darvish @ Kershaw)

My model projects the Padres to win this game at 46.5% of the time on the road against Kershaw and the Dodgers. That is about 5% value over the current line, so I’ll gladly back the Padres to make it two in a row against the Dodgers on the road. Of course this is a tough bet to make knowing how good the Dodgers are and how unlikely it is for them to lose 2 straight, but I think the pressure will consistently be more on the home team in this I5 series all season, due to the crowd expectations.

Darvish pitched just last week against this Dodgers team and had good success, until ultimately the Dodgers wore him down and jumped on the bullpen.

One thing to look out for is the Dodgers are crushing right handed pitching with a 133 RC+ against at the current time. Of course, this Dodgers lineup crushes all pitchers so this isn’t going to scare me away. I’ll lean on another solid performance from Darvish who should be able to keep the Dads in the game for giving it up to the bullpen.

I’m on the Pads at +130.