Daily MLB Edges 4-20-21
Daily advice for betting on MLB
I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.
Disclaimer
What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.
My Strategy
You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.
Key Metrics to Know
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.
Tuesday April 20th, 2021
We’ve got a full slate of games on Tuesday including a double header between the A’s and Twins. There’s a ton a great matchups to get to, so let’s dive right in.
Matchups I’m Targeting for April 20th
- Dodgers @ Mariners
- White Sox @ Indians
- Braves @ Yankees
- D-Backs @ Reds
- Orioles @ Marlins
- Giants @ Phillies
Dodgers @ Mariners (Urias @ Gonzales)
BaseRuns Projection
Synopsis
- Both offenses have been stingy against left handed pitching as they each rank in the top 5 in BB%.
- Both pitchers have been giving up harder contact than usual, and Gonzales specifically is allowing an astronomical runs allowed rate.
- Day game after night game, each pitcher on both sides that worked on Monday night may not see action on Tuesday leaving less availability for each manager.
The Pick: o8 -115, or o8.5 +100 or better
White Sox @ Indians (Rodon @ Pleasac)
This will be an exact rematch of last Wednesday’s White Sox route and Carlos Rodon no-hitter, but this time in Cleveland. The White Sox are coming off a draining series against the Red Sox in Boston where they played a rare Monday afternoon game in which they saw themselves fall behind early. Having taxed their bullpen arms so heavily from the double-header on Sunday, they turned to using position players to finish Monday’s game. The White Sox will need Rodon to find lightning twice within a week in order to provide their bullpen some much needed rest -- but can he do it?
The Indians don’t appear to be a booming team with the bats, but their expected numbers suggest (especially against lefties) that they may be due for some positive regression. They’ll certainly be eager to have another shot at Rodon after being no hit, so this could be a sneaky spot for them to breakout. Compile that with a taxed White Sox bullpen and it may be a recipe for run scoring.
As for Indians pitcher Zach Pleasac -- he was shelled in Chicago against the White Sox last week, giving up 8 runs in 4 innings. He may not repeat that horrendous performance, but it’s likely the White Sox will continue to have success against him.
I like the full game o7.5 at -110, and would bet it up to -115.
Daily Projection Model Sheet
If you’d like to compare your book’s lines to my model’s projections, simply download the sheet below and insert your given lines/totals into the yellow shaded cells to find your edges!
Essentially any time your “edge” result column returns a green cell, you’re looking at expected value. I don’t recommend playing every single edge, but sometimes it’s fun to find which games might be valuable to play run lines or even parlays. This will simply help you formulate those decisions.