Daily MLB Edges 4-2-21
Daily advice for betting on MLB on April 2nd
I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.
Disclaimer
What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.
My Strategy
You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.
Key Metrics to Know
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.
Friday Night Baseball
Opening day was a major success for the sport of baseball with several memorable moments and some exciting finishes. We saw the Dodgers lose to the Rockies while the Pirates beat the Cubs at Wrigley -- proving once again that baseball is largely unpredictable. Moving on the day 2 of the season, the slate is about half the size, but there are some intriguing matchups worth tuning into.
Matchups I’m Targeting for April 2nd
- Rays @ Marlins
- White Sox @ Angels
- Astros @ Athletics
Rays @ Marlins (Yarbrough @ Lopez)
After game 1 was largely a toss up, these two teams will square off in game 2 where a similar scenario may play out. With top of rotation starters Lopez and Yarbrough toeing the rubber, the difference may come down to bullpen performance.
The Rays used both Peter Fairbanks and Diego Castillo for an inning each, leaving the Rays a bit more vulnerable after Yarbrough exits in this one. Of course, the Rays possess one of the deepest bullpens and are extremely creative in how they utilize their guys, but I still have to downgrade them slightly here.
Marlins sinkerballer Pablo Lopez was extremely impressive in his 2020 outings touting a 3.39 xERA and allowed only a .270 xwOBA against. He mixes his fastball/sinker well with his changeup and isn’t likely to give up the long ball to the Rays’ lineup in the pitcher friendly Marlins park.
In a game that should play more like a toss up, I’ll take the home Marlins at plus money with the better starting pitcher against a Rays team that may not have their top bullpen arms available.
I would Marlins moneyline + 103 all the way to -105.
White Sox @ Angels (Keuchel @ Heaney)
After a terrific pitching performance shown by Lucas Giolito, it was the White Sox bullpen (Bummer) that wasn’t able to hold the lead for the south siders. Dylan Bundy had a solid start while his only blemish was a 5th inning 2-run homer given up to Adam Eaton.
For game 2 we’ll see both teams turn to lefty starters -- The Angels’ Heaney who mixes a low 90’s fastball with a changeup and solid curveball -- The White Sox will use veteran Dallas Keuchel who of course is crafty with his cutter being the most effective pitch in a 5 pitch mix.
With the Angels grabbing a late lead in last nights game, they were able to turn to closer Iglesias for the save in the 9th while the White Sox really only used Bummer out of the back end of their bullpen - who ultimately gave up the lead. While this was an impressive win for the Angels on opening night, I think public perception may be swinging a bit too heavily in their favor for game 2. The White Sox project a .375 wOBA vs lefties (25% above average) and have a fully healthy back of the bullpen to compliment Keuchel should he need to help.
I have the White Sox projected as -115 favorites in this one so I’ll gladly take them at +115, and play them all the way to +105.
I also like the White Sox for the 1st 5 innings, as I believe the south sider offense has an advantage against the lefty Heaney. I would bet the White Sox F5 ML to -110.
Astros @ Athletics (Javier vs Luzardo)
Astros starter Zack Greinke set the tone in game 1 for the Astros who seemingly dominated the game from start to finish. However, aside from the solid performance from Greinke, it’s unclear how much offense the Athletics will be able to create this season with the loss of Marcus Semien. The offense may be a bit down, but defense certainly is not as we saw several potential runs get saved by right fielder Chad Pinder -- the A’s have always been a scrappy team and they may need to accelerate that a bit more in 2021.
A’s starter Jesus Luzardo had an up and down campaign a season ago, but looks poised to impress in 2021 as he’s worked on his mechanics and added a secondary curveball that has looked great through Spring Training. With Luzardo on the mound, I like him to keep the Astros at bay with his new approach to the season, even though they are a team that projects well against lefties. Meanwhile, Christian Javier (who impressed last season with a .256 wOBA against) should have no issue limited the feeble A’s offense that notoriously has thrived against lefties while struggling vs righties over the last few seasons.
I’ll gladly take a full game under 8.5 runs in a matchup that features two strong starters, healthy bullpens, and the O.co Colosseum. I make this total 7.49 which provides a 3% edge. So I’ll play this one small.
Daily Projection Model Sheet
If you’d like to compare your book’s lines to my model’s projections, simply download the sheet below and insert your given lines/totals into the yellow shaded cells to find your edges!
Essentially any time your “edge” result column returns a green cell, you’re looking at expected value. I don’t recommend playing every single edge, but sometimes it’s fun to find which games might be valuable to play run lines or even parlays. This will simply help you formulate those decisions.