Daily MLB Edges 4-10-21
Daily advice for betting on MLB
I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.
Disclaimer
What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.
My Strategy
You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.
Key Metrics to Know
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.
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Saturday Baseball
It's a beautiful Saturday slate of baseball for us to indulge in here in early April. It's moving day at Augusta, but there are plenty of edges to capitalize on in MLB. Let's dive in.
Matchups I’m Targeting for April 10th
- Yankees @ Rays
- Mariners @ Twins
- Brewers @ Cardinals
- Padres @ Rangers
- Phillies @ Braves
- Reds @ Dbacks
Yankees @ Rays (German vs Archer)
Domingo German impressed in his return to baseball during spring training, but got off to a slow start in his first outing giving up 3 runs in 3 innings on 4 hits. He lacked control with most of his pitches and threw the curveball 38% of the time which is a big tick up from how he utilized his pitches in 2019. Combine a shaky first start with a tough matchup against a gritty Rays team in Tampa where German has historically struggled is enough for me to want to fade him in this spot where he’ll be pressing to rebound.
Rays starter Chris Archer isn’t anything to write home about at this point in his career, but over the course of the last few seasons he’s seemingly learned to mitigate disasters. He returns the Rays where he’ll be managed much more closely so don’t expect to see him last more than 3 or 4 innings before Kevin Cash turns it over to the bullpen. I like the Rays grittiness and balance with the bats at home to battle with the Yankees in a game my model makes more a toss up.
I’ll be betting the Rays at +125 and would take them down to +120.
Mariners @ Twins (Kikuchi vs Pineda)
The Mariners began this season with more optimism than they’ve had in quite some time, however they haven’t welcomed either of their top prospects up to the big leagues yet. Still, they’re lineup is much improved and they pair that with an intriguing rotation. Maybe the most intriguing is lefty Yusei Kikuchi who has not been great in his big league career to date, but may have some optimistic indicators. His 2020 ERA was 5.17 but had a 3.30 FIP and .278 xwOBA against. He actually had much better numbers against right handed batters than lefties which is also a good sign. Combine all of this with an uptick in velocity during spring training and Kikuchi becomes someone to keep an eye on for the new look Mariners.
While the offense for the M’s hasn’t put it all together yet, they too have shown signs of improvement outside of 2020 rookie of the year Kyle Lewis. In a matchup against the consistently struggling Michael Pineda, I'll happily take my chances with the underdog Mariners on the road in a game I project them to be more like +130 dogs rather than the current line of +170.
I like the Mariners at +170 full game, and also will be taking them in the 1st 5 Innings at +150.
Brewers @ Cardinals (Houser vs Martinez)
My model projects this game at 6.27 runs, so I’ll be looking to back the under. One concern may be the windy weather so keep an eye on that.
I like under 8.5 up to -120 or under 8 at -105.
Padres @ Rangers (Paddack vs Lyles)
I like this spot for the Padres against the lowly Rangers in a game that follows a no-hit performance from Joe Musgrove. Not only was the no-hitter impressive, but it also saved the entire bullpen from having to do any work.
The fresh bullpen is certainly a positive, but of course that isn’t the only advantage the Pads have in this matchup. Jordan Lyles has largely struggled as a starter in his career so I expect that trend to continue against a strong Padres lineup in Arlington. Somehow the books have the line for this game sitting in an area which presents a ton of value. I certainly would take the Padres to win the game outright, but I really like the value they present in the first 5 innings.
My model says the Padres are ahead after the 1st 5 innings 70% which is well above the current line of -160 (implied 61.69%). I like the Padres up to -160 in the first 5 innings.
Phillies @ Braves (Eflin vs Anderson)
After game one of this series in Atlanta played host to a high scoring affair, I expect a similar result in game 2 due to each of these hot offenses.
The Phillies are a team that hit righties very well last season (.331 wOBA, 106 wRC+ in 2020), and have essentially kept their exact same lineup together here in 2021. Braves starter Ian Anderson faced this Phillies lineup just last week to very little success and they were able to key in on his strong fastball and saw his curveball well. This is a good matchup for the Phillies so I expect them to put up some runs.
As for the Braves, they of course have a strong lineup, and they also hit righties very well. They struggled to start the season offensively but have made strides in the last few games that make it seem like their back on track. They get a second attempt at figuring out Phillies starter Zack Eflin this season, and I think they will with their rejuvenated confidence. Not only do I think they’ll score runs, but I think they should win the game, and believe there is value on their first 5 inning moneyline.
I like the Braves F5 at -140 -- and -- Over 4 runs for the 1st 5 innings between the two hot offenses.
Reds @ Diamondbacks (Hoffman vs Smith)
My model projects this game at Reds -119, much lower than the current line of -130. It’s not pretty backing Arizona in 2021, especially against a hot hitting Reds team, but I’ll take the 7.92% expected value on the Dbacks at +120.
Diamondbacks +120 or better.
Daily Projection Model Sheet
If you’d like to compare your book’s lines to my model’s projections, simply download the sheet below and insert your given lines/totals into the yellow shaded cells to find your edges!
Essentially any time your “edge” result column returns a green cell, you’re looking at expected value. I don’t recommend playing every single edge, but sometimes it’s fun to find which games might be valuable to play run lines or even parlays. This will simply help you formulate those decisions.