Daily MLB Edges 4-6-21

I pride myself and think of myself as a man of great betting wisdom… as there’s a drive to left by Castellanos, it will be a home run. So, that will make it a 4-0 ballgame. I don’t know if this is going to be the last time I offer betting advice again. I don’t know how this is going to be received by others. I don’t know how it’s going to turn out for my own personal bankroll. To anyone who feels misguided by past, present, or future recommendations -- I want to apologize immediately for your losses.

Disclaimer

What you are about to see are recommendations derived from a mathematical projection system that should be treated purely as a guide to help inform betting decisions. It does not tell the future, it likely won’t make you rich overnight. When used in tandem with a consistent strategic approach and effective money management utilization, the model may prove to return a profit.

My Strategy

You won’t see me blindly tailing each edge my model spits out at me. Once a matchup is run through my model (technical analysis) and provides a value, I want to perform a fundamental analysis of the matchup which basically accounts for anything that is not included in the calculation of the model (i.e weather, recent hot streaks, or advanced analysis of pitcher arsenal stats/batter arsenal hitting or any other statcast metric that isn’t perfectly quantifiable). I look for at least a 6% expected value edge in order to place a bet.

Key Metrics to Know

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA.

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Tuesday Baseball

Heading into Tuesday, we’ve got yet another full slate of games including day baseball in Detroit where up and comer Casey Mize takes the hill. Fernando Tatis Jr. left last night's game at Petco against the Giants with an apparent shoulder injury, which is not something anyone wanted to see happen to possibly the most exciting player in the game. While elsewhere in SoCal, the Angels pulled off yet another comeback win early in the season against an Astros team that looked dominant in their first series in Oakland. Let’s dive into Tuesday’s matchups and see where the edges are.

Matchups I’m Targeting for April 6th

• Braves @ Nationals
• Pirates @ Reds
• Cardinals @ Marlins
• Rays @ Red Sox
• Blue Jays @ Rangers

Braves @ Natonals (Smyly vs Scherzer)

I think the Nationals late start to the season due to COVID combined with the name recognition of Max Scherzer has the total for this matchup sitting lower than it should.

The Braves will trot out much improved starter Drew Smyly to the mound to face a Nationals team that has retooled a bit after having some offensive struggles in 2020. The mixture of this aforementioned combination is one that I think will add runs to this game -- as the Nat’s bats should be able to scrape across a few runs against the starter Smyly.

As for the Nationals starter Max Scherzer -- he is making his 2021 season debut at age 36 following a season cut short in 2020 by an injury. I believe the Braves will be able to hold their own against the veteran righty until he ultimately exits the game on what I’m assuming to be a limited pitch count. Upon exit, the Braves offense will have an opportunity to go to work against a Nationals bullpen that projects to be shaky at best this season.

I’ll be betting o7.5 runs up to -120 in a game I project to be 8.82

Pirates @ Reds (Cahill vs Miley)

The Reds have come out of the gates hot hot as they took 2 out of 3 against divisional faux St. Louis over the weekend. They continued that trend on Monday as they jumped out to an early lead against the Pirates and never looked back. At this point, public perception of the Reds may be getting blown out of proportion - especially against a Pirates team that is largely considered to be the worst team in baseball, meaning I think there could be some value on the Buccos.

Don’t get me wrong, I do think this Pirates team is quite terrible and I don’t expect them to win many games, but I think they may have the advantage in the first 5 innings facing Reds starter Wade Miley. Miley has been quite terrible over the last couple seasons posting nearly a 6.00 ERA and .350 xwOBA against over that span. He’s struggled to mix his pitches in a deceptive way like he could in the past with his low velocity arsenal. I’ll gladly fade Miley with a scrappy Pirates lineup that should be able to scratch a few runs across in the 1st 5 innings, while Pirates starter Trevor Cahill can hold the Reds lineup at bay. Cahill is unique in that he’s had lots of success against left handed batters as a righty pitcher, and has posted around a .300 xwOBA over the course of the last 2 seasons.

I like the Pirates +135 for the 1st 5 Innings up to +125.

Rays @ Red Sox (Glasnow vs Perez)

Bullpen stand out John Gant will be taking the mound as a starter for the Cardinals for the first time since 2018 where he had some serious issues. The success Gant has sustained over the past two seasons very well has given him the confidence he needed in order to succeed in his return as a starting pitcher… or not. Unfortunately only time will tell, but I like him enough to back him in this situation behind a talented St. Louis offense. This spring Gant struck out 13 batters in 14 ⅓ innings of work (very impressive), which is right on par with his work from the bullpen where he projects at 10.8 K/9.

Although Gant may only go 4 or so innings in this game, the Cardinals bullpen has the strength and stamina to pick up the slack the rest of the way.

I like the Cardinals as +115 underdogs on the road in Miami where I actually think they should be favored at 59% chance of victory.

Rays @ Red Sox (Glasnow vs Perez)

Pretty simple handicap for this one - Tyler Glasnow is very good, and Martin Perez is not. The Red Sox got out to an early lead against Rays starter Michael Wacha on Monday and never looked back to pick up their first win of the season. Tuesday, the Rays will trot out ace pitcher Tyler Glasnow who allowed only 1 hit in 6 innings of shutout baseball on opening day, so the Red Sox will have their work cut out for them on offense.

Where I see an edge here, is the Rays offense versus Red Sox pitcher Martin Perez who has struggled in his later years. I have the Rays projected at nearly -200 for the 1st 5 innings in this very clear mismatch. My model makes the score 2.6 to 1.77 runs - nearly a full run difference.

My model says the Rays are ahead after the 1st 5 innings 66.81% which is well above the current line of -148 (implied 59.68%). I like the Rays up to -160 in the first 5 innings.

Blue Jays @ Rangers (Roark vs Dunning)

The Blue Jays slugged their way to a win on opening day in Arlington before the first full capacity crowd of 2021. With the wind projected to be blowing out to left field at nearly 20mph, this matchup could also provide some explosive offense.

Newly acquired Rangers starter Dane Dunning is set to make his 2021 debut as the number 91 prospect in all of baseball. The righty who was acquired from the White Sox over the off season has made 7 MLB starts, pitching 34 innings over that span, and posted a 3.97 ERA. He features a healthy sinker which is thrown 39.4% of the time mixed with an average slider. While there isn’t a ton of upside to Dunnings profile, he does set up to be a reliable middle of the rotation starter who will eat innings as a sinker baller -- in other words he’s going to keep his team in the game.

Blue Jays starter Tanner Roark on the other hand is someone who has been on the wrong side of regression over the past few seasons (4.33, .332 and .380 xwOBA since 2018) while he’s also seen velocity dip slightly.

Essentially where each of these pitchers stand currently is fairly similar in terms of effectiveness as they cross each other of the progression/regression scale. I project the Rangers have a 48.44% chance of winning this game which is an expected value of 3% above the current line. I’ll side with the Rangers and Joey Gallo in what should be more of a toss up.

I like the Ranger +120 to +115 on the full game moneyline.

Daily Projection Model Sheet

If you’d like to compare your book’s lines to my model’s projections, simply download the sheet below and insert your given lines/totals into the yellow shaded cells to find your edges!

Essentially any time your “edge” result column returns a green cell, you’re looking at expected value. I don’t recommend playing every single edge, but sometimes it’s fun to find which games might be valuable to play run lines or even parlays. This will simply help you formulate those decisions.

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