Daily MLB Betting Edges 4-5-21

A Full Slate Of Monday Baseball

After opening weekend in baseball, we’re off to the races with a full slate of Monday baseball which includes several matinees that we can all tune into as we work from home. Let’s dive in and find some soft lines to make a little money before and after Gonzaga and Baylor square off in the National Title Game.

Matchups I’m Targeting for April 5th

• Royals @ Indians
• Cardinals @ Marlins
• Mets @ Phillies
• Astros @ Angels
• White Sox @ Mariners
• Giants @ Padres

Royals @ Indians (Duffy @ Allen)

A new series begins between these two AL Central squads with a Monday matinee featuring dueling back end rotation left handers. Coming into the season each of these lineups projected to do well against lefties in terms of weighted on-base average (.345 for CLE, .341 for KC). 3 games into the season, and one team is already exceeding expectations in this department -- the Royals are scorching hot boasting a .440 wOBA and 205 RC+ against lefties to date. Setting them up with a perfect chance to continue this streak and put up some runs against Cleveland starter Logan Allen who struggled to end the 2020 season posting a 5.35 FIP (6.12 xFIP).

Meanwhile, I expect the Indians offense to get back on track against lefties facing off against Danny Duffy. Duffy had a slightly above average wOBA in 2020 against righties while posting a lower BABIP of .287 (suggesting there may be regression looming).

Because of this data, I’d like to fade both of these starters by taking the F5 over of 4.5 runs. My model projects this total at 5.25, so I’ll gladly take the 5.5% expected value on this number.

Here are the full game projections for each starter and respective lineups:

I like o4.5 runs for the 1st 5 Innings up to -125.

Cardinals @ Marlins (Ponce De Leon @ Rogers)

After getting blown out by the Reds in Cincinnati, I like for the Cardinals to bounce back strong in Miami on Monday afternoon. A couple things happen to a team following a bad loss like the Cards faced on Sunday: 1.) they may have some extra motivation to get back on track the next day, 2.) they likely didn’t need to use any of their backend bullpen relievers, so they’ll be extra rested, and 3.) public perception is lower on that team, so it’s likely your book has shaded lines against them.

For those reasons, I’m taking the Cards in this one as they should have a rested bullpen and good batting advantage with their top tier right handed batter versus the lefty Rogers in Miami.

I have the Cardinals projected as -150 favorites in this one so I’ll gladly take them at +100, and play them all the way to -115.

Mets @ Phillies (deGrom vs Moore)

It’s finally time for Jacob deGrom to make his 2021 season debut on Monday in Philadelphia. Like any deGrom start, the sports books have projected for a low total. Any casual baseball fan would likely be able to tell you that deGrom isn’t likely to give up many runs in this one, which is true -- but what about his counterpart facing the Mets’ retooled 2021 lineup?

Matt Moore returns after a stint in Japan to pitch for the Phillies. The once 1st round draft pick selected by the Rays largely struggled to gain any momentum in his big league career after having shoulder surgery early on. Although he fared well in Japan, I project him to struggle a bit in his return to the big leagues stateside.

While books have shaded their lines in deGrom’s favor in terms of the total, I’m eyeing the F5 total of 3.5 in this game in hopes the Mets are able to get to Moore. With a total of 3.5, most projection systems will aim higher -- I’ll gladly take my chances here.

I make this F5 total 4.39 which provides a 9.47% edge. I’d play o3.5 up to -115.

Daily Projection Model Sheet

If you’d like to compare your book’s lines to my model’s projections, simply download the sheet below and insert your given lines/totals into the yellow shaded cells to find your edges!

Essentially any time your “edge” result column returns a green cell, you’re looking at expected value. I don’t recommend playing every single edge, but sometimes it’s fun to find which games might be valuable to play run lines or even parlays. This will simply help you formulate those decisions.

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