Daily MLB Betting Edges (Nightcap) 4-5-21

A full slate of baseball continues with some intriguing nightcaps to coincide with tonight's NCAAB national championship game. Here's what I'm betting for this evening.

• Astros @ Angels
• White Sox @ Mariners
• Giants @ Padres

Astros @ Angels (Garcia vs Quintana)

The Astros started off the season hot with a clean 4-game sweep of the A’s in Oakland. I like them to continue their winning streak facing off against Jose Quintana and the Angels who are coming off a hard fought series with the White Sox. Though the Angels were able to take 3 out of 4 against Chicago, it took all they had in each game -- meaning the bullpen is running on fumes, and Ohtani will sit out after a scary collision at home plate on Sunday night baseball.

I’ll take the fresh Astros who project well against left-handed pitching (.357 wOBA) to outscore whatever lineup the Angels decide to roll out. On top of the Astros great projection vs lefties, I also will gladly fade Jose Quintana who has got progressively worse over the course of the last few seasons. In 2020 he only managed a few starts before ending his season with an injury, so I expect this to be a short outing tonight in Anaheim.

I’d bet the Astros for the 1st 5 innings up to -105, and full game ML up to -110.

White Sox @ Mariners (Rodon @ Sheffield)

Carlos Rodon and Justus Sheffield have had similar success in the big leagues thus far in each of their young careers - unfortunately they haven’t impressed as much as some may have hoped. Both have made adjustments over the offseason and looked to be making strides forward during spring training. In an early season matchup that features a pitcher friendly matchup, I’m pressing my luck with an under as I believe each can limit runs. It’s also worth noting the White Sox have struggled to score runs thus far, making it seem obvious that Eloy Jimenez is big missing piece.

Playing this one small as it’s only a 4.42% edge at under 8.5.

Giants @ Padres (DeSclafani vs Morejon)

This is largely a public perception play as each team is on the other end of the spectrum from one another coming into the season. The Padres project to be one of the best teams in baseball and showed proof of it by taking 3 out of 4 at home against the D-backs, while the Giants played a forgettable series in Seattle where they left with a split.

The Giants are the entire handicap in this one as there's really nothing to note regarding the Padres -- I’m not here to make a claim they aren’t as good as their projections show, because I certainly think they will live up to expectations. The Giants on the other hand have the highest average age of any team in baseball, and have played a sleepy style of the game over the course of the last few seasons in which the results were below average. While not much has changed in the bay, this club may actually have more fight than you might think. Adding Buster Posey back to this lineup fills a gaping hole on offense and defense, plus his leadership is something to note as well.

One thing the Giants can do well is hit lefties (.357 wOBA). Adrian Morejon (L) spent last season in the bullpen where his matchups vs righties were limited. Although he may be used as more of an opener in this matchup, he’ll certainly be facing all the righties the Giants have to offer. So if you needed a reason to bet on the Giants there it is. My model gives the Giants a 43.73% chance to win this one at Petco Park, while the current line of +155 suggests only a 39.22% chance -- giving a 4.49% edge.

I like the Giants small at +155 and would bet them to +140.