2025 Stat Leader Projections for Position Players & Pitchers

For this article, I'm covering my MLB stat leader predictions and season award picks. This will include MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races for season awards, while the stat categories encompass wins, strikeouts, and saves for pitchers, and home runs, runs scored, RBI, steals, and hits for batters.

Below, I'll provide my projections and simulated outcomes (using a Monte Carlo simulation) for these statistics, guide you through each category, and tell you where I'm placing my money for the 2025 MLB season.

MLB Futures, Predictions: Stat Leader Bets

Here are my projected total hits leaders for the upcoming season, their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning), and their listed odds in the betting market.

I've also included the expected batting averages from the 1st and 2nd half of the 2024 season and the projected batting average for 2025.

I want to see a statistical edge in our sim value vs the market value and ideally validate it with a strong 2nd half performance in 2024 heading into this year.

Most Hits

Vladdy Guerrero Jr. (+1200): Continuing the contract year theme, Vladdy is worth a buy at this price as he will likely be laser-focused this year. If he can't win the HR crown, there's a good chance a fallback will be leading the hit category, especially at this 12/1 price.

Jackson Merrill (+1800): There's some risk that Jackson will fall victim to the daunted sophomore slump, but early spring signs point to more success. His approach as a hitter is so consistent with his repeatable swing, which should help him avoid slumps and tally hits consistently.

Most Home Runs

Vladdy Guerrero Jr. (3300): Vladdy is worth buying at this price with his pending contract after this season. He's always had the power and has shown the ability to win this crown, look for him to compete in this market this season whether it's fully with TOR or another squad.

Brent Rooker (+2500): Rooker just keeps getting better. By all measures, he improved again in 24' and will be aided with a hitter-friendly park with home games in Sacramento. With the park as an added intangible that could determine this race, I'll buy at this high price.

Most RBI's

Brent Rooker (+2200): This is no longer a fluke as Rooker has had 2 full seasons of sustained success. Combine that with the A's increase in talent/offensive production and that gives Rooker a puncher chance at leading this category, especially in a hitter-friendly home park.

Spencer Torkelson (100000): This is a long shot, but given the resurgence of power in spring it's likely he will slot into the middle of the order once again in 25. He's riddled with incentive and pressure to succeed, but the manager will keep him in favorable matchups and give him a chance.

Most Runs

Elly De La Cruz (+1600): I like Elly to soar in all areas on offense this season, so runs are just a facet of that expected success. He's the favorite to lead the SB category already, and I believe his OBP will increase significantly with maturity and a new approach - he's forever in scoring position.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+2800): Nando has a prolific ability to create havoc on the base paths and will likely be on frequently as he competes for a hits crown and is expected to increase his slugging - batting 2nd in a strong hitting lineup positions him well to compete for this crown as well.

Most Stolen Bases

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+2000): PCA is a menace on the basepaths and has an opportunity to steal this crown (no pun intended) if he can remain in the lineup all year and increase his OBP. So far in spring, he's showing promise in this area making this a great price to buy.

Most Pitcher Wins

Paul Skenes (+1200): Skenes' dominance isn't showing any signs of letting up heading into this year as he's projected to pitch deep into games where he's likely to have a lead. Although the Pirates aren't a team I'm high on, it's hard to pass up an opportunity to back one of the best pitchers in the league here at a good price.

Logan Gilbert (+3300): See AL Cy Young write-up - Gilbert improved effectiveness in the second half and is projected to go at least 6 innings in all starts; he's going to give his team a chance to win in a high percent of them, the hard part is his offense picking him up. This price shows value.

Most Pitcher Strikeouts

Logan Gilbert (+3300): This is another piggyback pick for Gilbert to win the Cy Young, as I see him pitching a ton and getting wins, and racking up plenty of strikeouts on that path. His 2nd half K/9 rate increased by almost 3!

Hunter Greene (+3000): This is a piggyback pick for Greene to win the Cy Young as he will likely need to generate the high rate of K's we're accustomed to seeing from him. By all measures, he was more effective down the stretch which spells tons of strikeouts making this a great price.

Most Pitcher Saves

Alexis Diaz (+2200): My projections show the Reds being in contention for the NL Central which suggests more wins/save opportunities for Diaz. He wasn't the most effective in 24' but even a marginal improvement combined with increased opportunities could win this crown.

Ryan Pressley (+2800): The Cubs may need to heavily rely on Pressley to close games this season as they have played a high rate of 1-2 run games compared to league average due to their scoring ability or lack thereof - this sets up nicely for Pressley at this high price.