2025 National League Preview
Win Totals & Future Odds Predictions for Every Team...
Although it may still feel like winter for the majority of the country, there's plenty to look forward to as a baseball fan. Soon the familiar sounds of ballparks around the league will be upon us, giving a valid excuse to take a half-day from work on a Wednesday to catch the getaway day matinee.
It's an exciting time to follow baseball–which is trending in the right direction after implementing some key rule changes over the last few seasons which have significantly enhanced the fan experience. The pace of play is up and the in-game action is up–each of which creates more fan engagement and ultimately enjoyment, which is helping bring attention back to America's favorite pastime.
On top of the pace and action, the legalization of betting has reached ballparks/markets all across the country, adding more interest for fans when attending or watching a ball game. The average fan now can wager on a vast catalog of angles and props for every game based on MLB's ability to capture advanced stats. The plethora of measurable statistics can now be used to create effective predictive models to help mitigate the overwhelming amount of options the average bettor has to choose from daily.
We can also use that data to build season-long prediction models to help us wager on win totals and futures markets.
Spring training is fully underway and opening day 2025 is quickly approaching. It's time to dive into the numbers and view where teams stack up heading into the season, and determine where to place our season-long investments.
Strategy Overview
Courtesy of Sean Zerillo at the Action Network, here are four key things to consider before investing in a season-long position. See Sean's full season preview and projections here.
- Books overinflate total win markets, which means that the total number of wins among the 30 teams adds up to more wins than are available during the MLB season (2,430).
- Similarly, books overinflate their divisional odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in a division winning that division will exceed 100%.
- Additionally, books overinflate their playoff odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in an individual league making the playoffs will exceed 600% (six teams in each league qualify).
- Finally, books also overinflate their pennant and World Series markets, meaning the combined probability—as indicated by the implied odds—of all 30 MLB teams potentially winning the World Series will exceed 100%.
Moreover, tying up your money for several months at a relatively small expected value edge is naturally unappealing to many bettors. By placing these wagers, you're diminishing your accessible bankroll in the short term and providing the house with an interest-free loan for at least half a year. Make certain to exercise careful bankroll management when creating season-long futures portfolios.
My Process
Using player projection data from various sources/models at FanGraphs combined with historical results from Baseball Savant and projection models from Fangraphs, PECOTA, Davenport, and the Action Network, I'm able to build a win total projection for every team which can then be compared to the market betting lines.
This win total is reached by summing the total projected BaseRuns created and allowed for every team, then applying the Pythagorean theorem for winning percentage formula to reach a result for every team.
Below are my 2025 MLB win total projections, alongside publicly available projections which are meant to be used as a comparison to my own to aid decision-making. Although I will evaluate each respective projection individually, I choose to create a "composite" view of the projection market ("MKT") which I then compare overall to my own and measure the delta.
NL East
Although this is considered a top-heavy division it's also likely to be one of the most closely contested down the stretch as the Braves, Phillies, and Mets are projected to finish within 3 wins of one another. It's widely accepted that the Braves will return to power in this division after injuries last year, the Phillies are to remain within the same level as their past 3 seasons, while the Mets are expected to continue their momentum from their 2024 NLCS playoff run. Let's dive into each team a little more closely, including the Nats and Marlins at the bottom.
Braves
On paper this is still one of the best teams in baseball, however, in practice it's going to require health. Injury issues have plagued this group the last 2 seasons, holding them back. Now eyeing a return to the top tier they are relying on injury risks along with a few unproven names at SP.
The lineup appears top-heavy to me, along with it being injury dependent. Although it's filled with big names who can produce at a high level, several will be returning from extended injury time in 24' which could make production volatile. The bottom of the order also leaves something to be desired which could create more pressure on the stars.
The pitching staff looks dominant but is dealing with Fried's departure, replacing him with youth and relying on Sale and Lopez to remain at the high level they performed at in 24'. Sale is aging, while Lopez is unproven, combined with Schwellenbach who is still young and developing.
This group also won't be helped by the pen as much this season which adds pressure on the starting group.
Overall this is a great team on paper but they have a lot to prove on the field before crowning them division champs again, especially as the Mets emerge as an NLE contender along with the talented Phils.
My win projection is 93.5 which is exactly what the books have listed as their betting line. The market consensus clocks in at 94.1, suggesting a slight lean to the over at this number. I would lean to the under given the competition in the NL East, but ultimately no official play on the Braves.
Their World Series future odds do show slight value, but with several key injury concerns on this roster, I'm staying away from that market too.
Phillies
Is this act getting a little stale? After 3 consecutive seasons as a top-tier contender without winning, the challenge is to now repeat that success. They bring in yet more SP talent which will be dominant, and have continuity and production on offense, but with the NLE contenders on the rise, it's getting harder.
Turner, Schwarber, Harper, and Realmuto are now well into their 30's while Castellanos has been noticeably declining for the last two seasons. Although this star-studded offense is still potent, it's coming with more risks as these guys age. Even at full health, they may start to see diminishing returns in their production, which may put additional pressure on the pitching staff.
Although the SP rotation is deep and talented, they will have a noticeable deficit in the bullpen after losing some key names. Certainly, this team will at the very least be in contention for a playoff spot so look for them to use their depth/prospects to bolster that unit as the season progresses.
Ultimately there is a public perception here that suggests they will continue winning at their 24' pace, but over the past 3 successful seasons, they've been prone to slow starts and prolonged losing streaks. That trend combined with the aging stars and weak pen to start the year makes this play on the under 91.5 wins a no-brainer as both my wins model and the market consensus show agreement.
Mets
After bursting onto the scene in the second half of 24' this team has real momentum after signing Juan Soto and bringing back their core power bat in Pete Alonso. The offense should propel forward with the insertion of Soto who has proven to elevate everyone around him in several stops in recent years. The pitching staff is solid but may need help, which they will likely get under the aggressive ownership of Cohen.
I don't believe in year-to-year momentum in baseball, but it's hard to deny this organization seems to be building in the right direction and has plenty of resources to sustain its growth. Soto will undeniably help increase production on an already strong roster, while professional hitters like Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo, and McNeil will constantly put together strong at-bats, making this lineup difficult to face daily.
The starting pitching staff is in a good place to start the year with a mixture of proven stop-gap talent and prospective value, plus if they run into injuries or trouble its likely Cohen will be aggressive to bring in help early. Even without issues, it's likely they add someone before the deadline to spell this potent offense and elevate the team's potential for another playoff run.
Although the NL East is difficult, I see this group prevailing and having a good shot at outpacing both Atlanta and Philly who are aging and come with their own set of questions that likely won't be as aggressively addressed.
Their listed win total reflects their positive sentiment–currently siting at 90.5. My model projects exactly 90.5 while the market consensus is slightly lower at 89.1, so there's no play on this market for me based on this math and the tight contention within the division. However, at the current odds I like the Mets to win the NL East at +190.
Nationals
It appears management sees this as another building year before turning on the jets. There's a plethora of burgeoning youth that will soon be cornerstone talent, but they must now develop fully at the MLB level.
It's all about the development of top prospect position players this year, which should certainly be a good watch, but given the lack of talent and depth on the pitching side of things, I have this team going under their win total of 71.5.
Marlins
This is a total rebuild. The only question is have they hit their floor after their peak in the 23' playoff birth. They still have some peices that will likely be auditioning for a deadline trade, but otherwise there aren't many storylines to follow at the MLB level.
Using the roster they have on hand preseason, I have this team projected at 62.6 wins. Given the likelihood they will be selling off some of their more productive pieces, I'd lean to the under on their listed win total of 63.5. The market consensus clocks in at 63.1 wins, also suggesting under is the safer bet.
NL Central
The NL Central is a high-variance division, and has been considered to be over the past few seasons. However, despite the preseason projections showing parody the Brewers have dominated. This season the Cubs have retooled while the Reds and Pirates are maturing top prospects into top tier MLB talent–will we see the Brewers perform above their projection and capture this division yet again, or will a new champion emege? Let's dive in.
Cubs
Although the team has improved on the field over the last 3 seasons, it's been at a slower pace than expected for such a big market org; due to front office apathy. Manager Craig Council asked for key roster improvements and got his wish this offseason and have clear leg up on paper vs NL Central opponents, now they simply have to prove it on the field.
The lineup however still leaves something to be desired even after adding Kyle Tucker to the middle of it to pair with Happ and Suzuki. The group overall creates a ton of contact, gets on base, and is athletic on the base paths, but power generation is going to be needed to keep up.
The pitching staff added veteran depth and has solid preospect talent behind them, all of which is somewhat unproven so managing this over the course of the year will be a tall task. Steele and Imanaga remain a quality tandem at the head of this rotation, and key additions to the bullpen will provide plenty of aid on a regular basis along with stellar defense behind them.
According to my projection, the market has adjusted this win total properly so there's no play from me on either side. However, given their willingness to compete this year and the longer future odds that are attached to the variance within the division, I see value in them winning the NL pennant at +1400 and the World Series at +2800.
Fangraphs suggests they have an 89% chance to make the playoff, so I like taking these long odds with that high chance of being in the bracket.
Brewers
This organization has proven to be Rays adjacent where they rely on their in-house projections to formulate productive units on the field. That strategy has been successful in recent years despite early playoff exits. They will look to continue this success with better established talent and depth this season.
It's year 2 of Jackson Chourio who is a potential all-star, while Yelich returns from back surgey. The increased production and presence of each should help boost this already deep lineup.
The pitching staff largely returns plus they bring in serviceable lefties Nestor Cortes and Jose Quintana–their veteran presence should provide consistent quality starts but overall the staff is average on paper. They will however continue to receive needed support from the bullpen despite it losing closer Devin Williams; this is a top 10 pen again.
If there is a cause for concern it's on defense where they project to be bottom tier. This issue is reflected in the 2024 ERA/FIP discrepancy and will likely get worse without Willy Adames at SS.
Although I'm hesitant to fade this team, I do think there's merit to them falling back this season with the emergence of the Cubs and Reds. Fangraphs suggests there's value on siding with them to miss the playoffs up to -140, and I agree with my win total projection of 81.3 which is firmly under their listed total of 83.5.
Reds
The position player unit has emerged over the past few seasons, now more optimized for sustained success, with key cornerstone pieces developing. Power and speed will pace this team which is conducive to the ballpark as they can win games by scoring in bunches. Could legendary manager Terry Francona be the secret ingredient to take this team to the next level?
The return of Matt McClain will help provide a solid boost to this already talented lineup and provide protection for MVP candidate Elly De La Cruz in the middle of the order. In a hitter friendly park this group is expected to put up a ton of runs and are improving their infield defense away from contending for a playoff birth. The potential resurgence of Noveli Marte as a top prospect gives this offense more upside as another middle of the order type hitter to pair with McClain and De La Cruz.
Something to watch on the cautionary side should be the infield defense, specifically at 3B and 1B where neither position has a solid defender option. If those gaps can be filled, Elly & McClain will form a solid batery up the middle.
The pitching staff has a true #1 in Hunter Greene at the top followed by 4-5 solid MLB level or above arms that will give quality starts often, plus there are 3 former first round picks waiting in the wings behind them for a shot. The bullpen added two effective arms this off season which will also give them a boost at the end of games, which is an area this team struggled in 24'.
Their listed win total of 77.5 is lower than my model's projection of 78.6 and the markets total of 77.7. Although this is only showing a slight edge I want to invest in this team and think think it's worth a play.
I also want to take future bet on them to win the division at +450, which is showing a fair amount of value against their fair odds. This is a good hedge bet to our Cubs futures as well–with a slight chance that both could be in play come end of year.
Pirates
This organization has done a good job of building through the draft in recent years, as the MLB roster is now filled with in-house prospects ready to take the next step. However they've left something to be desired when it comes to stimulating that growth by adding key role players to help the group win ASAP.
Especially in a division that is wide open on paper, Pittsburgh has not done much to position themselves better than where they were a season ago. Passing up the free agent hitting options on the market leaves this roster with a production deficit that is sure to add pressure to the young pitching staff which is still developing.
In order for them to compete in 2025 they will need to see major strides forward from the still developing positon player prospects, which might be too big of a hill to overcome.
The public wants this team to take the next step and go over their win total now that Skenes is in the public eye, but my model shows value on taking a position on their win total under 77.5.
Cardinals
After seeing only depatures this offseason, the writing may be on the wall that 2025 will be a rebuilding year. Each unit on this roster is projected to take a step back as a result which could create a mideseason firesale which may include the likes of Arenado and/or Sonny Gray. However in a weak division, a hot start could signal buy and compete given core talent.
There's still good upside on the positon player unit but in order to compete in the division the pitching staff is going to be required to far outperform their projections, which seems like quite a long shot as we sit here in preseason.
Due to volatility for this clubs season I'm going to stay away from any future bets. However my model does lean with taking the under at 77.5 wins.
NL West
Dodgers
There isn't much to say that isn't known about LAD; they're strong in all areas a team can be strong in, ranking 1st across the board. Barring injury this will again be the juggernaut that everyone is chasing in both leagues. The only question, which is crazy, is do they have any complacency after their World Series run?
My model projects they will win slightly less than their listed number of 103.5, but it's not a bet I'd prefer to risk given how thoroughly great this roster is.
Padres
The story with the core of this team over the past few seasons has been they are emotionally driven to succeed at a high level. When team chemistry is good they reach highest potention outcomes (2024), but are prone to complacency (2023). The talent is there, albeit top heavy, and Manager Mike Shildt has proven hs knows how to pull the strings.
The offense is certainly top heavy, but that's something that could be said about plenty of teams. As is the case with any team that profiles this way, it's going to come down to bottom of the order production from guys who have shown regression like Boegarts and Cronenworth, combined with contribution from veterans like Connor Joe, Jason Heyward, and Jose Iglesias. Jackson Merrill has solidified himself as a phenom and was a big cause of the 2024 success; can Tirso Orneles contrubue similarly as a rookie this season?
King and Cease at the top of the rotation have incentive to perform on a contract year, which is great for this team, whule Darvish is likely to remain effective despite some regression in old age. The addition of Pivitta gives them another reliable option with high upside, but the qusstionmarks surrounding what comes after the core 4 are looming. Guys like Matt Waldron, Kyle Hart, and Ryan Berget are likely going to need to play a key role over the course of the year.
Luckily the bullpen will continue to be a strong asset for the starting staff despite the loss of rental Tanner Scott. Not only is the pen filled with talent but manger Mike Shildt has shown top tier ability to migitate situationally.
The listed win total for this group is 85.5 which is right in line with mine and the market consensus projection, and given the volatility they've shown in recent years, I don't prefer to risk a wager on either side. The same goes for their futures market odds which fall a little shorter than I'd like for a difficult division and overall the National League.
Diamondbacks
Despite finishing as the most productive hitting team in MLB in 24' this squad missed the playoffs due to its pitching woes - both at SP and BP units. They lose a couple power bats but bring in servicable replacements to account and should remain a top 10 in hitting. Corbin Burnes addition to the SP staff and health for the BP suggest big bounceback.
Pederson's .900+ OPS vs lefties will be tough to replace, but Josh Naylor should help bridge the gap and promote this teams run production into the top 10 yet again. They will profile more like the 2023 WS squad that prided itself on speed and defense to make up for less power overall.
That stellar defense and speed will help the much improeved pitching staff as well. Now with a clear ace at the helm followed by 4-5 well above average arms, there won't be many games this unit doesn't expect a quality start. Health in the pen will also aid this staff and slightly diminished offense with security on the backend.
With the Dodgers being such a juggernaut it's leaving the rest of the division and league with higher than normal odds in the futures market. If there's a team that looks like they can compete on paper, its this one.
Their NL Pennant price at +1500 and World Series odds at +3000 show value within my model.
Giants
This team finished exactly .500 last season, and going into it, that was the projection and feel for their potential. This season, although they've added Willy Adames to own SS and bat 3rd and vets Verlander and Ray to SP, they still profile as an average team in a difficult division. They will grind out games with depth and league average, but no wow.
The lineup still lacks something to be desired with it's names, and that's reflected in their projection in the bottom third of run production. They will be needing guys like Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo-Lee, and Tyler Fitzgerald to emerge as cornerstone talents in the order.
Overall they profile as a defense first unit that lacks speed to make up for hitting woes, and this impacts the pitching staff, which projects to improve with new additions and developments.
The staff should improve with its new veteran leads combined with the steady Logan Webb. They also have a plethera of depth that has MLB experience looking to take the next step.
No play on their win total or futures market, although I was hoping to find long shot value in their playoff odds.
Rockies
There isn't much to say here that isn't already known. This is a rebuild through and through. There are some bright spots on this roster but on a per unit basis they are significantly lacking talent and depth. Pitching is forever a problem at Coors Field, they hope development of a new wave will make change.
National League Future Positions
- Phillies: Under 91.5 Wins
- Mets: Win NL East (+190)
- Mets: Win National League (+525)
- Mets Win World Series (+1200)
- Reds: Over 77.5 Wins
- Cubs: Win National League (+1400)
- Cubs: Win World Series (+2800)
- Reds: Win NL Central (+450)
- Pirates: Under 77.5 Wins
- Diamondbacks: Win National League (+1500)
- Diamondbacks: Win World Series (+3000)