2025 American League Preview
Win Totals & Future Odds Predictions for Every Team...
Although it may still feel like winter for the majority of the country, there's plenty to look forward to as a baseball fan. Soon the familiar sounds of ballparks around the league will be upon us, giving a valid excuse to take a half-day from work on a Wednesday to catch the getaway day matinee.
It's an exciting time to follow baseball–which is trending in the right direction after implementing some key rule changes over the last few seasons which have significantly enhanced the fan experience. The pace of play is up and the in-game action is up–each of which creates more fan engagement and ultimately enjoyment, which is helping bring attention back to America's favorite pastime.
On top of the pace and action, the legalization of betting has reached ballparks/markets all across the country, adding more interest for fans when attending or watching a ball game. The average fan now can wager on a vast catalog of angles and props for every game based on MLB's ability to capture advanced stats. The plethora of measurable statistics can now be used to create effective predictive models to help mitigate the overwhelming amount of options the average bettor has to choose from daily.
We can also use that data to build season-long prediction models to help us wager on win totals and futures markets.
Spring training is fully underway and opening day 2025 is quickly approaching. It's time to dive into the numbers and view where teams stack up heading into the season, and determine where to place our season-long investments.
Strategy Overview
Courtesy of Sean Zerillo at the Action Network, here are four key things to consider before investing in a season-long position. See Sean's full season preview and projections here.
- Books overinflate total win markets, which means that the total number of wins among the 30 teams adds up to more wins than are available during the MLB season (2,430).
- Similarly, books overinflate their divisional odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in a division winning that division will exceed 100%.
- Additionally, books overinflate their playoff odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in an individual league making the playoffs will exceed 600% (six teams in each league qualify).
- Finally, books also overinflate their pennant and World Series markets, meaning the combined probability—as indicated by the implied odds—of all 30 MLB teams potentially winning the World Series will exceed 100%.
Moreover, tying up your money for several months at a relatively small expected value edge is naturally unappealing to many bettors. By placing these wagers, you're diminishing your accessible bankroll in the short term and providing the house with an interest-free loan for at least half a year. Make certain to exercise careful bankroll management when creating season-long futures portfolios.
My Process
Using player projection data from various sources/models at FanGraphs combined with historical results from Baseball Savant and projection models from Fangraphs, PECOTA, Davenport, and the Action Network, I'm able to build a win total projection for every team which can then be compared to the market betting lines.
This win total is reached by summing the total projected BaseRuns created and allowed for every team, then applying the Pythagorean theorem for winning percentage formula to reach a result for every team.
Below are my 2025 MLB win total projections, alongside publicly available projections which are meant to be used as a comparison to my own to aid decision-making. Although I will evaluate each respective projection individually, I choose to create a "composite" view of the projection market ("MKT") which I then compare overall to my own and measure the delta.
AL East
This is projected to be one of the best divisions in baseball as there are four teams with less than 25 to 1 odds to win the American League, each with less than 10 to 1 odds to win the division. This should be a hotly contested race throughout the year, with the eventual winner likely a proper World Series favorite heading into the playoffs. In order of how these teams finished in 2024, let's dive into each organization and their prospective seasons.
New York Yankees
It's very possible losing Juan Soto along with the other parts out on the hit production side of the equation will create a sizeable gap for the current roster to fill (i.e. Bellinger, Goldschmidt, Dominguez). The current unit overall looks solid on paper but is fragile with there being age and injury concerns along with little organizational depth to backfill if necessary.
Pitching will be the catalyst for the team as a whole after some key offseason additions to both the starting rotation (Max Fried) and bullpen (Devin Williams). If the offense is set to take a slight step back, it will certainly be aided by a strong overall pitching campaign.
Factoring in the data, my win total projection of 87.1 wins is on par with the external projection average of 88.2, which is well below the listed market total of 91.5. With a delta of nearly 4 wins, this is a clear under bet on this aging roster that now has even more stiff competition in the AL East.
Along with the win total under I also see value in placing a bet for the Yankees to miss the playoffs at +350. Given the fragility of the roster on the offensive production side of the coin and the emerging competition in the AL East from the Orioles, Red Sox, and Rays, I believe this to be a valuable price.
Baltimore Orioles
This roster is constructed similarly to the last two seasons where they hit the ball at will top to bottom, while simultaneously developing young talent. However, the pitching side of things has left something to be desired, lacking depth and a clear 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
Given the depth and youth on offense, this team will produce runs at a rate that can win the division but they will likely need to add some pitching depth (perhaps swap prospect depth for top of rotation arm) if they ultimately want to separate themselves in the competitive AL East.
I expect another strong campaign with a win projection of 86.6, but no value at the current price to win the AL East, AL Pennant, or World Series. Depending on their deadline approach I may look to add an investment in this squad midseason.
Boston Red Sox
2024 was a building year for this roster, which saw plenty of key prospects emerge as cornerstone talent on both the hitting and pitching sides of the coin. They will now be able to combine that existing talent with newcomers Garret Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Alex Bregman who should all provide an added boost.
The lineup is potent and can produce at a top 5 rate in the league, taking this team to the familiar heights Red Sox fans are accustomed to seeing at Fenway Park. After a breakout campaign in 24' for this pitching staff, they look to take another step forward as a group, which they are projected to do with a team WAR ranking in the top 10.
I think this team is poised and ready to take the league by storm and will compete for the AL East in the midst of returning to the playoff picture. I'm higher than the market on this team as I have them projected at 86.7 wins while the market average is 83.5. While I'd lean toward taking their win total over, I'd rather invest in their future odds instead on account of value.
I like Boston to win the division at +425, AL Pennant at +1400, and the World Series at +2500.
Tampa Bay Rays
After a down year in 24' due in large part to injuries, this team should return to competitiveness with health and youth additions. The offense will strive for its normal plucky/dynamic approach using its upside hitters, now built around budding star Junior Caminero who will be the full-time 3rd baseman.
The pitching staff will gain a huge boost with the return of Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen from injuries, which will aid the pen as well, which had uncharacteristic struggles last season.
This team has a high upside which if reached has the potential to compete in the division, but on paper, I have them projected to finish 4th with 82.4 wins which aligned with the market average of 81.8, slightly above their listed total of 81.5 - not quite enough of an edge to invest.
Although I wouldn't be surprised if this team returns to contention level in the AL East I wouldn't expect them to come near matching their 2023 form where they won 99 games.
Toronto Blue Jays
This organization feels like it's stuck in the mud, largely due to the fact they play in the highly competitive AL East. The pitching staff is aging and regressing, while the window is closing on the once prospective talents of Bo Bichette and Vladdy Guerrero Jr.
On that note, it's possible Vladdy doesn't make it through the end of the year, which would spell sell and rebuild for the org and significantly impact their season-long win total.
Although subjectively I'm low on this team going into the season, my math along with the other notable market projections show value in taking the over on the listed total of 78.5 wins. My projection clocks in at 79.4 while the market average is all the way up at 82.4.
Because I lean personally toward the fact that Vladdy will be traded, I am refraining from making any play on this win total or any futures market bets for that matter.
AL Central
Similar to the AL East, this division is also projected to be tightly contested after the Royals and Tigers saw their decade-long rebuilds turn into playoff births. Due to the parody in this division, all four teams vying for the crown are projected with win totals in the lower 80's, so assuming this holds the division winner will be looked at as the probable 3 seed heading into the playoffs. Will this be another close finish as it was in 2024 or will we see one or two organizations propel forward and win comfortably? Let's dive into each organization in America's heartland.
Minnesota Twins
On paper, this is a strong team when healthy as they consistently hit for power and can produce runs at a top 5 rate. They do so with a deep bench of league-average batters who are dynamic with handedness and defensive flexibility. The pitching staff is also deep and aided by the #1 projected bullpen coming into the year.
The issue that plagues this organization has been speed and athleticism–which creates a deficiency on defense hurting the pitching staff, and creates pressure on the offense to hit situationally. Both areas significantly contributed to losses that kept this team out of the playoffs in 2024.
According to my projection, these issues are likely to persist as I have them winning 81.8 games which is well under their listed total of 84.5. The market average projection is slightly higher at 84 but that is largely due to to PECOTA's 87.2 calculation.
I don't see enough value on any of the futures market targets, and likely wouldn't fire unless there was a big edge, given the athleticism concerns which have proven to be an issue for several seasons.
Detroit Tigers
After gaining confidence with a playoff run in 24' this organization is in a position to take the next step as it continues to develop the current wave of youth that reached the majors. A key piece to the development and success last season was the managerial prowess of A.J. Hinch who pushed all the right buttons in the second half when this team played at a 97 win pace.
The offense is still young but has breakout candidates all over, while the pitching will be the catalyst in pitcher friendly park. If the run production increases even marginally, this can be a division winner.
I'm high on this team with a projection of 83.8 wins which is much higher than the average market projection of 80.5. Due to this discrepancy, I will not be placing a wager on the win total, but I do want to buy a piece of the futures market.
Based on how this team stacks up against its division foes and my mathematical calculation, I believe this team will win the division at a higher rate than their listed odds of +260 suggest, therefore I'm going to take that position. Math aside, I subjectively believe this team is more complete in all areas with no major deficiencies than the other organizations in the AL Central.
Based on the ability of the youth in the lineup to continue growing, a solid pitching staff that welcomes the #9 overall prospect in Jackson Jobe into the rotation, and the steady managerial ability of A.J. Hinch, I also like the value on this team making a Pennant run at +1300.
Cleveland Guardians
Due to key departures, the offense is set to take a step back year over year which is likely to severely affect their chances of repeating as AL Central champs. The starting pitching staff also loses key pieces and has not made any upgrades after a mediocre 24' so the bullpen, which ranks in the top 3 of all of baseball, will again be heavily relied upon - but will they have many leads to protect?
Based on my projections, I've got this team going under its listed win total of 82.5 at 80.5 wins, which is in line with the market and the sentiment that they will have an uphill battle to return to their 2024 success.
Due to this consensus gap amongst trusted projections, I see value in investing in this season-long under win total at 82.5.
Kansas City Royals
If this team is going to repeat last season's success it's going to need to severely outperform their preseason pitching projections. Although largely returning the same staff from 24' it appears regression is expected from this group. That will increase pressure and/or reliance on the young hitting core that is blossoming but not fully there as a full unit as they profile as being top heavy.
As much as the public perception is high on this team, the math says otherwise. Both my model and the market average projects their win total at 81.1 which is a full 2 wins lower than the listed total of 83.5.
Chicago White Sox
What can we really say here? They've brought in MLB level free agents who will likely be auditioning for a midseason trade that the organization can swap for prospect talent. Outside of that, there isn't really a compelling storyline to follow on the field.
Having said that, every model including mine projects this team to exceed or reach their listed win total of 53.5 wins. With a total this low and league-average talent on the roster, the only play is to take the over, but given the midseason sell-off that's expected, I will not be investing any real money into it.
AL West
This division is shaping up to be a three-headed race between Houston, Texas, and Seattle yet again. Although the Astros replaced a lot of the production they lost, they will have new faces in place attempting to uphold their division crown which may very well give the Rangers and Mariners a puncher's chance of overtaking them. Meanwhile, the Athletics, who will be playing home games in Sacramento, made sizeable strides forward in 2024 and may continue to progress this year, while the Angels are looking at a full rebuild despite adding some veteran names to the roster.
Houston Astros
Take away the brand name and this roster likely won't "wow" you compared to others in the AL or even AL West contenders. Pillar franchise pieces in Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker leave, but sufficient replacements in Chrian Walker and Isaac Paredes have been added. The pitching staff is looking to pull a similar stunt, now heavily relying on the top of the rotation arms for quality, while the remaining unit will be pieced together using depth.
Overall the roster looks top heavy on paper but the production is still there for the model to calculate a win total projection of 87.6 which is slightly higher than the market average of 86.2 - splitting the listed total of 87.5.
My gut says there's cause to side with the projections from Fangraph's ZiPS which suggests value on the Astros to miss the playoffs at +145, but given this organization's track record, I need to see it first before making that kind of risky investment.
Texas Rangers
After a year of mediocrity, this organization is primed for a major bounce back. Injuries plagued every group on this team, but now at full health don't be surprised if they win the AL West. The position player unit is top 5 in baseball with its addition of Joc Pederson in the middle of the order which adds a consistent source of power vs righties and protection for the star hitters surrounding him.
The starting pitching staff and bullpen units should take major leaps forward after making some key additions and/or getting guys like Jacob DeGrom and Tyle Mahle back from injury.
My model suggests they'll see production return to 2023 levels as their win total projection is at 88.3 which is slightly higher than the market average of 85.9, suggesting a play on the over at 85.5.
I also love this organization to overtake Houston and Seattle and win the division at +200 or better. Along with the division crown, I see value in their Pennant odds at +1100 and their World Series odds at +2500.
Seattle Mariners
This team underachieved last season and made no moves in the off-season to combat their weaknesses. The pitching staff is top 5 in MLB and will continue to be a catalyst for success, but at some point in order to take a step forward the hitting will need to be there. It's not clear it will in 25', which could mean the struggles from last season continue.
If I only used my projection (win total 83.2), I would consider betting Seattle to miss the playoffs. However, every public projection has Seattle making the postseason at least 56% of the time, and blending my projection to form the composite encourages me to pass on that bet.
I will however follow my projection on a win total under 84.5 bet.
Athletics
After hitting rock bottom in 23' this organization is back on the rise, filled with young talent that should continue to develop in 25'. They will be playing in an obscure home park, but that may actually help their offensive production. The pitching still won't be spectacular, but will hold it's own; creating plenty of competitive games.
I have this win total projected at 76.8 which is well above the market average of 73. Each is above the listed total of 71.5 and suggests a play on the win total over, however, I'd prefer to hold off given the volatility that could ensure from playing in a new stadium with a long stretch of road games during the summer months.
Los Angeles Angels
Rock bottom may not yet be reached for this organization. They still have a hodgepodge of veteran and younger players all vying for MLB positions, but very few are poised for growth. The pitching staff is serviceable for the season but isn't filled with guys who will be here through the rebuild.
Although my projection along with the market projections suggest this organization will go over their 71.5 win total, I will pass on account of their likely strategy to sell at the deadline.
American League Future Positions
- Yankees: Under 91.5 Wins
- Yankees: Miss the Playoffs (+350)
- Red Sox: Win AL East (+425)
- Red Sox: Win AL Pennant (+1400)
- Red Sox: Win World Series (+2500)
- Tigers: Over 83.5 Wins
- Tigers: Win AL Central (+260)
- Tigers: Win AL Pennant (+1200)
- Guardians: Under 82.5 Wins
- Rangers: Over 85.5 Wins
- Rangers: Win AL West (+200)
- Rangers: Win AL Pennant (+1100)
- Rangers: Win World Series (+2500)
- Mariners: Under 84.5 Wins